Serie A
Bologna - Cagliari
05/03/2026, 10:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.3
0.7
1:0
14%1:1
13%2:0
12%0:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Bologna
Cagliari
The Lab
- 1Bologna with JoĂŁo MĂĄrio: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Cagliari: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 3Cagliari with Alberto Dossena: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
56%
Draw
28%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
45%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Bologna's form crisis: The team lost 4 of their last 5 matches and recently averaged only 0.6 goals scored
- Cagliari's away weakness: The away team conceded an average of 1.81 goals per away game this season
- Head-to-head record: Bologna won 4 of 5 direct encounters, with the mathematical model predicting a home win with 56%
Risk Factors
- Low shot-on-target efficiency for Bologna: In the last 5 games, Bologna averaged only 2.8 shots on target
- Cagliari's lack of goal threat: The away team showed an average of only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Bologna's currently weak goal production: Goal production is stagnant (Avg. 0.6 goals/game), while the season average is Avg. 1.4 goals/game
Overview
Bologna (9th place, 48 points) host Cagliari (16th place, 36 points) at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Serie A match on May 3, 2026, 12:30 PM.
Bologna aim to improve their league standing, while Cagliari fight against relegation.
Form
Bologna's form across all competitions: LWLLL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses)
Loss 0:2 against Roma (at home)
Loss 0:2 against Juventus (away)
Loss 0:4 against Aston Villa (away)
Win 2:0 against Lecce (at home)
Loss 1:3 against Aston Villa (at home)
Cagliari's form across all competitions: LLWLW (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses)
Win 3:2 against Atalanta (at home)
Loss 0:3 against Inter (away)
Win 1:0 against Cremonese (at home)
Loss 1:2 against Sassuolo (away)
Loss 0:1 against Napoli (at home)
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Bologna averaged 1.24 goals scored per game and 1.21 goals conceded
Cagliari averaged 1.00 goals scored per game and 1.42 goals conceded
At home, Bologna averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.54 goals conceded
They kept 6 clean sheets at home
Away, Cagliari averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.81 goals conceded
They kept 1 clean sheets away from home
At Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, an average of 2.4 goals were scored per game
Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches
Bologna won 4, Cagliari won 1, with 0 draws
The goal difference is 9:4 in favor of Bologna
The last head-to-head match on October 19, 2025 ended 2:0 for Bologna
Key Players
Key players for Bologna:
Federico Bernardeschi (Attacker) with 2 goals, 2 assists and Avg. 6.86 rating
Jens Odgaard (Midfielder) with 5 goals, 1 assist and Avg. 6.74 rating
Juan Miranda (Defender) with 1 goal, 2 assists and Avg. 7.09 rating
Key players for Cagliari:
Sebastiano Esposito (Attacker) with 6 goals, 5 assists and Avg. 7.18 rating
Marco Palestra (Midfielder) with 1 goal, 4 assists and Avg. 6.95 rating
Gianluca Gaetano (Midfielder) with 2 goals, 3 assists and Avg. 6.82 rating
Goalkeepers
Bologna recorded 10 clean sheets this season
Massimo Pessina made 2 appearances this season
Cagliari recorded 7 clean sheets this season
Elia Caprile made 33 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.91
Influences
Bologna's home advantage is relevant, with an average of 1.23 goals scored and 1.54 goals conceded at home
At Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, the average is 2.4 goals per game
Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 out of 5 games
The grass pitch at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara is the usual playing surface