Serie A
Roma - Fiorentina
05/04/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.5
0.9
1:1
13%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
6%1:2
5%What influences the xG?
Roma
Fiorentina
The Lab
- 1Fiorentina: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- 2Fiorentina with Pietro Comuzzo: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Roma with Stephan El Shaarawy: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
53%
Draw
28%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
47%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Pipeline analysis: A 53% home win probability and 1.63 predicted home goals favor Roma
- Roma's home strength: The defense is particularly stable, conceding only 0.53 goals per home game on average
- Fiorentina's away weakness: The visitors concede an average of 1.56 goals per away game
Overview
Roma (6th place, 61 points) host Fiorentina (16th place, 37 points) at the Stadio Olimpico
Serie A match on May 4, 2026, 8:45 PM
Roma aims to solidify their position in the European qualification spots, while Fiorentina seeks to distance themselves further from the relegation zone
Form
Roma is in good form with W-L-W-D-W (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) in their last 5 matches
Their last victory was a 2-0 away win against Bologna
Fiorentina records L-W-W-D-D (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) from their last 5 matches
They recently had two consecutive draws, including a 0-0 against Sassuolo
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Roma averages 1.41 goals scored per game and concedes 0.85 goals
At home, Roma is particularly strong, scoring an average of 1.42 goals and conceding only 0.53 goals
Fiorentina averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Fiorentina concedes an average of 1.56 goals
The Stadio Olimpico sees an average of 2.8 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Roma secured 2 wins, Fiorentina 1 win, and there were 2 draws
Roma scored 7 goals, while Fiorentina scored 9 goals
The last encounter on October 5, 2025, ended with a 2-1 victory for Roma
Key Players
For Roma, Donyell Malen is a key attacker with 11 goals and 1 assist this season, showing stable form in the last 5 games with 4 goals and 1 assist
MatĂas SoulĂ© contributed 6 goals and 5 assists this season
Defender Mario Hermoso scored 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games and is in stable form
For Fiorentina, Albert Gudmundsson is important with 5 goals and 4 assists this season
Jack Harrison recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games, showing stable form
Robin Gosens scored 1 goal in the last 5 games
Lineup check: 100% of Roma's usual starting XI strength is available
Not nominated for Roma: Lorenzo Pellegrini (4G/2A), Devyne Rensch (0G/4A), Neil El Aynaoui (1G/2A)
Lineup check: 89% of Fiorentina's usual starting XI strength is available
Not nominated for Fiorentina: Rolando Mandragora (6G/3A), Roberto Piccoli (3G/1A)
Goalkeepers
Roma's goalkeeper Mile Svilar kept 15 clean sheets this season
Fiorentina's goalkeeper David de Gea recorded 8 clean sheets
Influences
The Stadio Olimpico is known for an average of 2.8 goals per game
Roma benefits from a home advantage, conceding only 0.53 goals in their own stadium
Fiorentina shows a more vulnerable defense away from home, with an average of 1.56 goals conceded per game
The match will be played on a grass surface