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Serie A

Sassuolo - AC Milan

05/03/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Sassuolo
0.8
Total xG
2.4
AC Milan
1.6
Most Likely Scores

0:1

13%

1:1

13%

0:2

12%

0:0

11%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
SASAM

Sassuolo

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.60
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.10
Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap)
-0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01
Andrea Pinamonti on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists)
Cristian Volpato on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)

AC Milan

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.33
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap)
+0.06
Christian Pulisic on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists)
Luka Modrić not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Davide Bartesaghi on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Koni De Winter not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    AC Milan with Zachary Athekame: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Sassuolo with Woyo Coulibaly: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Sassuolo: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 4
    Sassuolo: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

17%

Draw

28%

Away Win

55%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

45%

Away or Draw

83%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of only 17% for Sassuolo and an away win probability of 55% for AC Milan
  • AC Milan demonstrates a strong away defense, conceding an average of 0.61 goals per game
  • AC Milan dominated recent head-to-head matches with 2 wins and 2 draws in 4 encounters
Risk Factors
  • AC Milan's goal production has recently stalled (1.0 goals), with a season average of 1.5
  • Sassuolo is currently scoring more frequently (1.5 goals) than their season average (1.2 goals)
  • Both teams averaged 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Sassuolo (11th place, 46 points) host AC Milan (3rd place, 67 points) at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Serie A match on May 3, 2026, 3:00 PM

AC Milan are favorites for this encounter and aim to solidify their position in the top half of the table

Form

Sassuolo's form in their last five matches across all competitions is DWLWD

This includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last match ended in a draw

AC Milan's form in their last five matches is DLLWD

This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

AC Milan also drew their last game

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sassuolo averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they average 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded

AC Milan averages 1.41 goals scored and 0.79 goals conceded per match

Away from home, their average is 1.44 goals scored and only 0.61 goals conceded

Sassuolo achieved 7 clean sheets this season, while AC Milan recorded 15 clean sheets

The MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore averages 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and 4 of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In four head-to-head matches, Sassuolo have zero wins, AC Milan won two games, and two matches ended in a draw

AC Milan scored a total of 12 goals, while Sassuolo scored 6

The last encounter on December 14, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw

Key Players

For Sassuolo, Domenico Berardi (7 goals, 4 assists) and Ismaël Koné (6 goals, 0 assists) are important attacking forces

Armand Laurienté contributed 5 goals and 8 assists

For AC Milan, Rafael Leão (9 goals, 3 assists) and Adrien Rabiot (6 goals, 4 assists) are crucial players

Christopher Nkunku is another important attacking option with 5 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Sassuolo is expected to start with Stefano Turati in goal, who recorded 3 clean sheets this season

AC Milan will have Mike Maignan in goal, who has an impressive 15 clean sheets

Influences

Sassuolo's home statistics show an average of 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded

AC Milan, however, is strong away from home, conceding only 0.61 goals per game

The MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore averages 2.6 goals per game

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