Serie A
Atalanta - Genoa
05/02/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.3
1.2
1:1
10%2:1
10%2:0
8%3:1
7%3:0
6%What influences the xG?
Atalanta
Genoa
The Lab
- 1Genoa with Stefano Sabelli: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Atalanta with Odilon Kossounou: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Atalanta: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 4Genoa: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
58%
Draw
23%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
64%
Under 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
42%
Under 3.5
58%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
42%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 58% probability
- Atalanta has won all 5 head-to-head matches against Genoa with a goal difference of 17:4
- Atalanta's home strength with an average of 1.39 goals scored and 0.78 goals conceded meets Genoa's away weakness with 1.5 goals conceded
Risk Factors
- Atalanta shows mixed form with only 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
- Genoa's goal production has recently stalled, averaging 0.8 goals per game according to Advanced Stats
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 62% probability for both teams to score
Overview
Atalanta (7th place, 54 points) host Genoa (14th place, 39 points) at the Gewiss Stadium. The Serie A match takes place on May 2, 2026, 8:45 PM. Atalanta is fighting for European qualification spots, while Genoa is positioned in the mid-table.
Form
Atalanta's form in the last five matches across all competitions is WLDDL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses). Their last result was a 2-3 loss against Cagliari. Genoa's form in their last five games is LLWWL (2 wins, 3 losses). Genoa most recently lost 0-2 to Como.
Statistics
Atalanta averages 1.36 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded per game. At home, their average is 1.39 goals scored and 0.78 goals conceded. Genoa averages 1.18 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded per game. Away from home, their average is 1.19 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded. Atalanta kept 12 clean sheets, while Genoa had 7. At the Gewiss Stadium, the last 5 matches saw an average of 3.0 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals occurring in 2 out of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the previous 5 head-to-head matches, Atalanta dominated with 5 wins. Genoa has not won any of these encounters. The goal difference of 17:4 is clearly in favor of Atalanta. The last meeting on December 21, 2025, ended in a 1-0 victory for Atalanta.
Key Players
For Atalanta, Nikola Krstović with 10 season goals and 4 assists, and Gianluca Scamacca with 8 goals and 1 assist are key attacking players. Charles De Ketelaere contributed 3 goals and 5 assists. For Genoa, Lorenzo Colombo with 7 goals and 1 assist, Leo Østigård with 5 goals and 1 assist, and Vitinha with 5 goals and 1 assist are the leading scorers. Ruslan Malinovskyi (6 goals, 3 assists) is not nominated and missing for Genoa.
Goalkeepers
Marco Carnesecchi of Atalanta played 33 season games and recorded 12 clean sheets for his team. Justin Bijlow was in goal for Genoa in 13 season games and was involved in 7 clean sheets for his team.
Influences
Atalanta shows solid performance at home with an average of 1.39 goals scored and 0.78 goals conceded. Genoa concedes an average of 1.5 goals per away game. At the Gewiss Stadium, the last 5 matches averaged 3.0 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 matches.