Serie A
Pisa - Lecce
05/01/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
1.9
0.8
0:0
17%1:1
15%1:0
14%0:1
11%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Pisa
Lecce
The Lab
- 1Pisa with Arturo Calabresi: 0.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Pisa: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- 3Pisa: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Lecce: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Lecce with Corrie Ndaba: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
35%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
58%
Under 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
29%
Under 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
12%
Under 3.5
88%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
65%
Both Score
Yes
38%
No
62%
Key Factors
- Relegation battle: Both teams are at the bottom of the table, emphasizing the importance of the match
- Home advantage according to Pipeline: The mathematical analysis gives Pisa a 37% chance for a win or 35% for a draw, equating to a 73% chance of not losing at home
- Offensive weakness: Pisa's recent goal production was only 0.2 goals, while Lecce averaged 0.25 goals, significantly below their season averages of 0.77
Risk Factors
- Pisa squad weakening: Matteo Tramoni (2 goals, 2 assists) is doubtful, accounting for 18% of missing goals and reducing active goal threat to 86%
- Lecce offensive paucity: Lecce registered an average of only 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Pisa defensive vulnerability: Pisa conceded an average of 1.91 goals per home game
Overview
Pisa (20th place, 18 points) host Lecce (17th place, 29 points) in Serie A
The match takes place on May 1, 2026, 8:45 PM at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
Both teams are fighting at the bottom of the table against relegation
Form
Pisa shows alarming form with five consecutive losses (LLLLL)
In these five games, Pisa scored only 1 goal and conceded 12 goals
Lecce achieved two draws in their last five matches but also lost three games (LLLDD)
The last two matches ended in a draw
Statistics
Pisa scored an average of 0.71 goals and conceded 1.79 goals per game this season
At home, the average is 0.73 goals scored and 1.91 goals conceded
Lecce scored an average of 0.65 times and conceded 1.35 goals this season
Away, the average is 0.67 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded
At Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, an average of 2.4 goals per game were scored
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games (60% BTTS), and there were over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 games (60% Over 2.5)
Head-to-Head
There has only been one direct encounter between these teams in the league so far
Lecce won the last meeting away on December 12, 2025, with a score of 1:0
Analysis of the sole direct match shows dominance from the current away team
Key Players
For Pisa, Adrian Semper (Avg 6.94 Rating), Stefano Moreo (6 goals, 1 assist, Avg 6.94 Rating) and Michel Aebischer (1 goal, 1 assist, Avg 6.85 Rating) could be crucial
Moreo's form trend is declining, Aebischer is stable
Lecce relies on Tiago Gabriel (2 goals, Avg 6.9 Rating), Lassana Coulibaly (3 goals, 1 assist, Avg 6.83 Rating) and Ylber Ramadani (1 goal, Avg 6.82 Rating)
Ramadani's form trend is rising
Goalkeepers
Adrian Semper, Pisa's goalkeeper, achieved 5 clean sheets in 21 season appearances
Wladimiro Falcone, Lecce's goalkeeper, recorded 9 clean sheets in 34 appearances
Influences
Pisa's home strength shows an average of 0.73 goals scored and 1.91 goals conceded per game
Lecce scores an average of 0.67 goals away and concedes 1.53 goals
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani sees an average of 2.4 goals per game, with a BTTS rate of 60% and an Over 2.5 rate of 60%