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Serie A

Juventus - Hellas Verona

05/03/2026, 04:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Juventus
2.2
Total xG
3.1
Hellas Verona
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
JUVHV

Juventus

Attack strength (1.78x league average)
+1.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.20
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 19, 15 places gap)
+0.15
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.11
Jérémie Boga on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)

Hellas Verona

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.2 vs 0.8 season average)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 4, 15 places gap)
-0.15
Gift Orban not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 73% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juventus: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Hellas Verona with Amin Sarr: 2.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Juventus with Fabio Miretti: 11.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Juventus: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

67%

Draw

21%

Away Win

12%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

88%

Away or Draw

33%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Favorites Role: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Juventus with 67% probability
  • Juventus Home Strength: Juventus has a strong home offense with an average of 1.70 goals and a stable defense with only 0.65 goals conceded
  • Hellas Verona Away Weakness: Hellas Verona concedes an average of 1.94 goals away and scores only 0.69 goals
Risk Factors
  • Juventus' goal production has recently stalled with 1.5 goals/game compared to the season average of 1.9 goals/game
  • Hellas Verona concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game
Overview

Juventus (4th place, 64 points) host Hellas Verona (19th place, 19 points) at the Juventus Stadium

Serie A match on May 3, 2026, 6:00 PM

The mathematical analysis sees Juventus as clear favorites with a 67% home win probability

Expected goals are 2.22 for Juventus and 0.86 for Hellas Verona

Juventus is fighting for Champions League spots, while Hellas Verona is battling relegation

Form

Juventus shows strong form with WDWWD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) from their last 5 matches

Hellas Verona is in a difficult phase with LLLLD (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses) from their last 5 games

Juventus recently drew 0-0 away against AC Milan

Hellas Verona last achieved a 0-0 draw at home against Lecce

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Juventus averages 1.68 goals scored per game and concedes 0.85 goals per game this season

At home, Juventus averages 1.70 goals scored and concedes 0.65 goals, with 8 clean sheets

Hellas Verona averages 0.68 goals scored per game and concedes 1.65 goals per game this season

Away from home, Hellas Verona averages 0.69 goals scored and concedes 1.94 goals, with 3 clean sheets

Juventus's goal production has recently stalled (1.5 goals/game), while the season average is 1.9 goals/game

Hellas Verona's goal production has also stalled (0.3 goals/game), the season average is 0.8 goals/game

At the Juventus Stadium, the last 5 games averaged 2.0 goals per match

Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juventus recorded 3 wins and 2 draws

Hellas Verona has not won any of the last 5 games against Juventus

Juventus scored a total of 9 goals and conceded 3 goals in these encounters

The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on September 20, 2025

Key Players

Kenan Yıldız (Attacker) scored 10 goals and 6 assists this season with an average rating of 7.45

Jonathan David (Attacker) contributed 6 goals and 4 assists to the offense with an average rating of 6.75

Weston McKennie (Midfielder) scored 5 goals and 5 assists with an average rating of 7.02

Kieron Bowie (Attacker) scored 2 goals this season with an average rating of 6.84 and shows a stable form

Martin Frese (Defender) scored 2 season goals with an average rating of 6.87

Rafik Belghali (Defender) contributed 2 season goals with an average rating of 6.7

Goalkeepers

Michele Di Gregorio of Juventus has an average rating of 6.83 this season and 8 clean sheets in home games

Lorenzo Montipò of Hellas Verona has an average rating of 6.59 and 3 clean sheets in away games

Di Gregorio shows a rising form trend in the last 5 games with a delta rating of 0.27

Influences

Juventus enjoys a home advantage with an average of 1.70 home goals scored and only 0.65 home goals conceded

Juventus Stadium has seen an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches

In 1 of 5 games at Juventus Stadium, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 games

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