Serie A
Inter - Parma
05/03/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
2.6
0.6
2:0
15%1:1
10%3:0
10%2:1
9%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Inter
Parma
The Lab
- 1Inter: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2Inter with Henrikh Mkhitaryan: 6.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Parma with AdriƔn BernabƩ: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Parma: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Parma: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
68%
Draw
22%
Away Win
9%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
91%
Away or Draw
32%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
41%
No
59%
Key Factors
- Inter has a high win probability of 68% according to mathematical analysis
- Inter's offense is in top form, currently scoring more often (3.4 goals) than their season average (2.3 goals)
- Inter has proven to be a dominant home team in head-to-head matches, with 2 wins in 3 encounters
Risk Factors
- Parma averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Parma's goal production is faltering (0.8 goals on average recently), with a season average of 1.0 goals
- Parma is without B. Cremaschi and M. Frigan due to Unknown Injuries
Overview
Inter (1st place, 79 points) host Parma (12th place, 42 points) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. The Serie A match takes place on May 3, 2026, 8:45 PM. Inter lead the league, while Parma is in the mid-table.
Form
Inter shows strong form with WWWWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five matches
The team achieved 4 wins and 1 draw
Parma has a form of LDDWW
Parma recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
Inter ended their last match with a draw, Parma with a win and two consecutive wins.
Statistics
Inter scored an average of 2.35 goals per game this season and conceded 0.91 goals
Parma averaged 0.74 goals scored and 1.18 goals conceded per game
Inter kept 16 clean sheets, while Parma had 12
At home, Inter scored an average of 2.35 goals and conceded 0.75 goals
Away, Parma scored 0.75 goals and conceded 1.12 goals
The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza venue saw an average of 3.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches
In 2 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and in 4 out of 5 games, more than 2.5 goals were scored.
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches between Inter and Parma, Inter won 2 times, Parma won 0 times, and there was 1 draw
Inter scored 7 goals and Parma scored 3 goals in these encounters
Inter won the last match on January 7, 2026, with a 2-0 score
Inter has dominated recent matchups.
Key Players
Federico Dimarco of Inter proved to be a key player with 6 goals and 17 assists in 32 season appearances
Marcus Thuram contributed 12 goals and 5 assists in 27 appearances
NicolĆ² Barella scored 3 goals and provided 8 assists in 31 games
For Parma, Mateo Pellegrino is important with 8 goals and 1 assist in 33 season appearances
AdriƔn BernabƩ recorded 3 goals and 1 assist in 31 matches
Gabriel Strefezza scored 1 goal and 2 assists in 11 appearances.
Goalkeepers
Inter will likely start with goalkeeper Yann Sommer, who kept 16 clean sheets this season
Parma relies on Zion Suzuki, who achieved 12 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Inter's home strength is evident with an average of 2.35 goals scored and only 0.75 goals conceded per home game
The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza is a high-scoring venue with an average of 3.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of the last 5 games at the stadium.