Serie A
Cremonese - Lazio
05/04/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.7
1.5
1:1
14%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Cremonese
Lazio
The Lab
- 1Cremonese with Youssef Maleh: 0.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Cremonese: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 3Cremonese: 81% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Lazio: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 5Lazio with Daniel Maldini: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
28%
Draw
29%
Away Win
44%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
56%
Away or Draw
72%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Lazio with a probability of 44%
- Lazio is in 10th place in the league, while Cremonese is in the 18th relegation spot
- Cremonese shows a weak form curve with 1 win and 3 losses in the last 5 games
Risk Factors
- Cremonese scored an average of only 0.76 goals per game at home
- Cremonese recorded an average of 3.4 shots on target in the last 5 games
Overview
Cremonese (18th place, 28 points) host Lazio (10th place, 48 points) at the Stadio Giovanni Zini. The Serie A match takes place on May 4, 2026, 6:30 PM. Cremonese are fighting against relegation, while Lazio is aiming for a spot in the top half of the table
Form
Cremonese's form in the last 5 games is WLLDL, which corresponds to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Cremonese's goal production is stagnant, averaging 0.8 goals recently compared to a season average of 0.9 goals, indicating a negative form trend. Lazio's form in the last 5 games is DLWDD, with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss. Lazio is currently scoring more frequently, with an average of 1.4 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.3 goals, suggesting a positive form trend. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Cremonese scored an average of 0.76 goals per game this season and conceded 1.5 goals. At home, they scored 0.76 goals and conceded 1.35 goals. Lazio recorded 1.03 goals scored and 0.91 goals conceded per game throughout the season. Away from home, Lazio averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 goal conceded. Cremonese had both teams score (BTTS) in 14 games and over 2.5 goals in 14 games. Lazio had both teams score in 8 games and over 2.5 goals in 8 games. At the Stadio Giovanni Zini, an average of 2.0 goals per game were scored. In 2 of 5 games, both teams scored, and in 2 of 5 games, over 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Cremonese and Lazio. This match took place on December 20, 2025, and ended in a 0:0 draw. The historical record is even
Key Players
For Cremonese, Federico Bonazzoli is an important attacker with 7 goals, 2 assists, and an average rating of 6.97. Filippo Terracciano, a defender, scored 2 goals and has a rating of 6.84. Youssef Maleh (1 goal, 0 assists) shows stable form in the last 5 games. For Lazio, Kenneth Taylor stands out with 3 goals, 2 assists, and a rating of 6.97. Toma Bašić (2 goals, 2 assists, rating 7.03) scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games. Mattia Zaccagni (3 goals, 0 assists, rating 6.99) provided 1 assist in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Emil Audero of Cremonese played in 30 season games and achieved an average rating of 7.03. His team kept 5 clean sheets at home. Edoardo Motta of Lazio played in 6 season games and has an average rating of 6.9. Lazio kept a clean sheet in 9 away games
Influences
Cremonese averaged 0.76 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded at home. Lazio scored 1.0 goal and conceded 1.0 goal on average away from home. The Stadio Giovanni Zini recorded an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 40% of the matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of the matches