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Serie A

Como - Napoli

05/02/2026, 04:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Como
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Napoli
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

1:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
COMNAP

Como

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.29
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.15
Attack strength (1.59x league average)
+0.01
Marc Oliver Kempf on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)

Napoli

Attack strength (1.24x league average)
-0.35
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.04
Leonardo Spinazzola on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Frank Anguissa  on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Como: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Napoli with Pasquale Mazzocchi : 9.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Napoli: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Como with Jesús Rodríguez: 5.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Napoli: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

31%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: Como is favored with a 44% home win probability and 1.32 expected goals, compared to Napoli's 0.92
  • Como's Strong Home Defense: The team conceded an average of only 0.75 goals per home game this season
  • Napoli's Superior League Position: Napoli sits in 2nd place, while Como is in 5th place
Risk Factors
  • Como's Increased Recent Defensive Vulnerability: The team conceded an average of 2.25 goals in recent matches, compared to their season average of 0.82
  • Napoli's Inconsistent Offensive Output: In the match against Lazio (0-2 loss), they registered zero shots on target
Overview

Como (5th place, 61 points) host Napoli (2nd place, 69 points) at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Serie A match on May 2, 2026, 6:00 PM

Como is fighting for a European spot, while Napoli aims to secure a top league position

Form

Como's form across all competitions is DLLLW (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

Napoli shows stronger form with WWDLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)

Como's last match was a 2-0 away win against Genoa

Napoli won their last match 4-0 at home against Cremonese

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Como averages 1.74 goals scored per game and concedes 0.82 goals per game

Napoli averages 1.53 goals scored per game and concedes 0.97 goals per game

Como kept 16 clean sheets, Napoli 12 clean sheets

Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia sees an average of 3.8 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches at the venue, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Como and Napoli each secured 1 win, with 2 draws

Como scored 4 goals, Napoli 5 goals

The last encounter on February 10, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Recent meetings have been even

Key Players

For Como, Nico Paz stands out with 12 goals and 6 assists, and an average rating of 7.53

Anastasios Douvikas  contributes 12 goals and 1 assist to the offense, his recent form (6.58) is slightly declining

Lucas Da Cunha  shows stable form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

For Napoli, Rasmus Højlund is an important attacker with 11 goals and 3 assists, his last 5 games rating is 6.96

Scott McTominay scored 2 goals in the last 5 games with stable form

Kevin De Bruyne  shows stable form in the last 5 games with 1 goal and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Jean Butez from Como recorded 16 clean sheets this season with an average rating of 7.07

Vanja Milinković-Savić  from Napoli achieved 12 clean sheets with a rating of 6.85, his form is rising (7.24 in the last 5 games)

Influences

Como has a strong defense at home, conceding an average of only 0.75 goals

Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.8 goals per match

The natural grass surface of the stadium is a standard factor

Como's home statistics show 1.7 goals scored per game

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