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Serie A

Lecce - Juventus

05/09/2026, 06:45 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Lecce
1.0
Total xG
2.6
Juventus
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

0:2

10%

1:2

10%

2:1

6%

0:3

5%
What influences the xG?
LECJUV

Lecce

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.27
Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 4, 13 places gap)
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.06
M. Berisha not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

Juventus

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.19
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 17, 13 places gap)
+0.10
Jonathan David on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists)
Khéphren Thuram on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Jérémie Boga on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juventus: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Juventus with Fabio Miretti: 8.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Lecce: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Juventus: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Lecce with Konan N’Dri: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

22%

Draw

28%

Away Win

50%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

50%

Away or Draw

78%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis favors Juventus with a win probability of 50%
  • Juventus impresses this season with an average of 1.66 goals scored per game and 0.86 goals conceded
  • Juventus is unbeaten in 5 matches, showing 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games
  • Lecce records low offensive efficiency with an average of 0.69 goals per game and 18 matches failing to score
Risk Factors
  • Lecce averaged only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Lecce scores only 0.67 goals per home game on average
  • Juventus's recent goal production is 1.5, compared to their season average of 1.8 goals
Overview

Lecce (17th place, 32 points) host Juventus (4th place, 65 points) at the Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Serie A match on May 9, 2026, 8:45 PM

Lecce is fighting against relegation, while Juventus aims to secure a Champions League spot

Form

Lecce's form in the last 5 matches is LLDDW

This translates to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

The last result was a win

Juventus shows a form of WWWDD in their last 5 games

This means 3 wins and 2 draws

The last game ended in a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Lecce averages 0.69 goals scored per game and concedes 1.34 goals

At home, they score 0.67 goals and concede 1.28 goals per match

Juventus is stronger offensively, averaging 1.66 goals per game, with a solid defense conceding 0.86 goals

Away from home, Juventus scores 1.64 goals and concedes 1.14 goals per game

Lecce kept 9 clean sheets, while Juventus managed 15 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 13 of Lecce's games and 16 of Juventus's games

The Stadio Comunale Via del Mare venue averages 2.6 goals per game

In 3 out of 5 matches at this stadium, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lecce has 0 wins, Juventus has 3 wins, and there were 2 draws

Lecce scored a total of 3 goals, while Juventus scored 8 goals

The last encounter on January 3, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Juventus has been the dominant team in recent meetings

Key Players

For Lecce, Lameck Banda (4 goals, 3 assists, 6.67 average rating) and Lassana Coulibaly (3 goals, 1 assist, 6.83 average rating) are important attacking forces

Tiago Gabriel (2 goals, 0 assists, 6.90 average rating) is also a key player who scored one goal in the last 5 matches

For Juventus, Kenan Yıldız (10 goals, 6 assists, 7.44 average rating) and Weston McKennie (5 goals, 5 assists, 7.03 average rating) stand out

Manuel Locatelli is an important midfielder with an average rating of 7.40 (1 goal, 2 assists)

M. Berisha (2 goals, 3 assists) is not nominated for Lecce

For Juventus, Jonathan David (6 goals, 4 assists), Khéphren Thuram (3 goals, 2 assists), and Jérémie Boga (4 goals, 1 assist) are not in the squad

Goalkeepers

Lecce goalkeeper Wladimiro Falcone achieved 9 clean sheets this season

Juventus goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio recorded 15 clean sheets

Influences

The match will take place at the Stadio Comunale Via del Mare on grass

Venue statistics show an average of 2.6 goals per game

60% of matches ended with both teams scoring, and 60% with over 2.5 goals

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