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Serie A

Fiorentina - Genoa

05/10/2026, 01:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Fiorentina
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Genoa
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%

1:2

6%

3:0

5%
What influences the xG?
FIOGEN

Fiorentina

Attack strength (1.3x league average)
+0.38
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Albert Gudmundsson on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Jack Harrison on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Roberto Piccoli on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 80% available)

Genoa

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
12% of goal output missing (only 87% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Genoa with Stefano Sabelli: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Fiorentina with Pietro Comuzzo: 2.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Genoa: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Genoa: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

29%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical model favors a home win for Fiorentina with 49%
  • Head-to-Head Record: Fiorentina is unbeaten in the last 5 direct encounters against Genoa (3 wins, 2 draws)
  • Home Strength vs. Away Weakness: Fiorentina averages 1.11 goals scored at home, while Genoa concedes an average of 1.41 goals away
Risk Factors
  • Low Shots on Target: Fiorentina averaged only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Negative Form Trend: Both Fiorentina and Genoa show a negative form trend in goal production according to Advanced Stats
Overview

Fiorentina (16th place, 37 points) hosts Genoa (14th place, 40 points) at the Stadio Artemio Franchi. This Serie A match takes place on May 10, 2026, 3:00 PM. Fiorentina is battling to avoid relegation, while Genoa aims to solidify its mid-table position. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Fiorentina with a 49% probability.

Form

Fiorentina has shown a form of WWDDL in their last five matches across all competitions

This includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last match resulted in a 0-4 loss against Roma

According to Advanced Stats, their current form trend is negative, with goal production stagnating at 1.0 compared to a season average of 1.4

Genoa's form in their last five matches is LWWLD

This consists of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Their last match ended in a 0-0 draw against Atalanta

Genoa also has a negative current form trend, with goal production stagnating at 1.0 compared to a season average of 1.4

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Fiorentina averages 1.09 goals scored per game and 1.4 goals conceded per game this season

At home, the average is 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded

They have kept 8 clean sheets, both teams scored in 21 matches, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 19 matches

Genoa averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.37 goals conceded per game this season

Away from home, Genoa averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded

They have kept 8 clean sheets, both teams scored in 19 matches, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 19 matches

The Stadio Artemio Franchi has seen an average of 1.8 total goals in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches (60%), and over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 out of 5 matches (40%)

Head-to-Head

In the 5 direct encounters, Fiorentina secured 3 wins and there were 2 draws

Genoa has not managed to win any direct head-to-head matches

Fiorentina scored 10 goals while Genoa scored 5 goals in these matches

The last meeting on November 9, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw

Historically, Fiorentina has been more dominant in these fixtures

Key Players

Key players for Fiorentina include Rolando Mandragora, NicolĂČ Fagioli, and Robin Gosens

Rolando Mandragora (Midfielder) has 6 goals and 3 assists in 31 season appearances with an average rating of 7.08

NicolĂČ Fagioli (Midfielder) contributed 2 goals and 3 assists in 31 season appearances with an average rating of 7.22

Robin Gosens (Defender) scored 3 goals and 1 assist in 23 season appearances with an average rating of 6.83

Not listed in the lineup are Albert Gudmundsson (5G/4A), Jack Harrison (1G/3A), and Roberto Piccoli (3G/1A), which accounts for 81% of the usual starting XI's goal threat

For Genoa, Lorenzo Colombo, Leo ØstigÄrd, and Vitinha are important players

Lorenzo Colombo (Attacker) scored 7 goals and 1 assist in 35 season appearances with an average rating of 6.70

Leo ØstigÄrd (Defender) netted 5 goals and provided 1 assist in 29 season appearances, with an average rating of 7.12

Vitinha (Attacker) recorded 5 goals and 1 assist in 33 season appearances with an average rating of 6.77

Goalkeepers

Fiorentina will start with David de Gea in goal

He has kept 8 clean sheets this season

For Genoa, Justin Bijlow will be in goal

He has also recorded 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

Home team Fiorentina scores an average of 1.11 goals and concedes 1.11 goals in home games

Genoa scores an average of 1.12 goals and concedes 1.41 goals in away games

The Stadio Artemio Franchi recorded an average of 1.8 total goals in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 60% of matches, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 40%

The playing surface at Stadio Artemio Franchi is grass

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