Serie A
Napoli - Bologna
05/11/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.5
1.0
1:1
14%1:0
10%0:0
10%2:1
9%2:0
9%What influences the xG?
Napoli
Bologna
The Lab
- 1Bologna with Nicolò Cambiaghi: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Napoli with Eljif Elmas: 4.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Napoli: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- 4Napoli: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
30%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Napoli sits in 2nd place in the table with 70 points and a strong home performance of 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded per game
- Bologna shows poor current form with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last five games, with recent goal production dropping to 0.5 goals per game compared to 1.4 goals season average
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Napoli with a probability of 45%
Risk Factors
- Bologna averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last five games
- Bologna was the more dominant team in recent direct matchups, as shown by their 2:0 win in the last encounter
- Napoli is missing three key players from the lineup
Overview
Napoli (2nd place, 70 points) host Bologna (10th place, 49 points) at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. The Serie A match takes place on May 11, 2026, 8:45 PM. Napoli aims to maintain its strong league position
Form
Napoli's form in the last five matches is WDLWD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Napoli recently drew 0-0 away against Como. Bologna's form is WLLLD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) and they most recently drew 0-0 at home against Cagliari
Statistics
Napoli scores an average of 1.49 goals per game and concedes 0.94 goals. At home, they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded. Bologna averages 1.20 goals scored per game and concedes 1.17 goals. Away, Bologna scores 1.18 goals and concedes 0.95 goals per game. At the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, an average of 2.6 goals per game have been scored recently. Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, there was 1 win for Napoli, 2 wins for Bologna, and 2 draws. The goal difference is 4:5 in favor of Bologna. The last meeting on November 9, 2025, was won by Bologna with a score of 2:0. Bologna has been the more dominant team in recent direct matchups
Key Players
For Napoli, Rasmus Højland (10 goals, 3 assists season-to-date, 1 goal, 1 assist in last 5 games) stands out. Scott McTominay (9 goals, 3 assists season-to-date, 2 goals in last 5 games) and Matteo Politano (2 goals, 5 assists season-to-date, 1 goal, 1 assist in last 5 games) are also key attacking players. For Bologna, Riccardo Orsolini (8 goals, 1 assist season-to-date, 1 goal in last 5 games), Santiago Castro (7 goals, 2 assists season-to-date), and Juan Miranda (1 goal, 2 assists season-to-date) are notable
Goalkeepers
Napoli has Vanja Milinković-Savić in goal, who played in 26 season games. The Napoli team kept 13 clean sheets. For Bologna, Massimo Pessina has appeared in 3 season games. Bologna recorded 11 clean sheets across the season
Influences
Napoli enjoys a home advantage, as the team scores an average of 1.50 goals and concedes only 0.75 goals at home. The Stadio Diego Armando Maradona has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in recent matches. Both teams scored in 40% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of the games