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Serie A

Lazio - Inter

05/09/2026, 04:00 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Lazio
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Inter
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
LAZINT

Lazio

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap)
-0.09
Kenneth Taylor on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Mattia Zaccagni  on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)

Inter

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2.8 vs 2.3 season average)
+0.16
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Federico Dimarco on the bench (6 goals, 17 assists)
Hakan Çalhanoğlu not in squad (9 goals, 4 assists)
Pio Esposito not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists)
Piotr Zieliński on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists)
Denzel Dumfries on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Manuel Akanji on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lazio: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Inter: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Inter with Henrikh Mkhitaryan: 8.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Inter: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Lazio: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

30%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an Inter win with 39% probability
  • Inter's impressive season performance as league leader with 82 points is a decisive advantage
  • Inter's away strength with an average of 2.36 goals scored is remarkable
  • Inter has dominated recent head-to-head matches with 3 wins and 2 draws from 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Lazio shows a positive form trend and is currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals)
  • The Stadio Olimpico recorded an average of 3.4 total goals in the last 5 matches, which could indicate a more open game
Overview

Lazio (8th place, 51 points) host Inter (1st place, 82 points) at the Stadio Olimpico

Serie A match on May 9, 2026, 6:00 PM

Inter enters this clash as the clear league leader

Form

Lazio's form in their last five matches is "LWDDW"

This includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Lazio won their last game away against Cremonese with a 2-1 score

Inter displays a strong form of "WWWDW"

This corresponds to 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five fixtures

Inter recently won 2-0 at home against Parma

Statistics

Lazio scores an average of 1.11 goals per game and concedes 0.97 goals per game this season

At home, Lazio's average is 1.14 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded

Inter is very strong offensively with an average of 2.34 goals per match and 0.89 goals conceded

Away from home, Inter scores an average of 2.36 goals and concedes 1.14 goals

The Stadio Olimpico recorded an average of 3.4 total goals in the last 5 matches

In 3 out of 5 games, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Inter secured 3 wins and there were 2 draws

Lazio has not managed to win any of these matchups

The goal difference of 13:3 clearly favors Inter

The last encounter on November 9, 2025, saw Inter win 2-0 at home

Key Players

For Lazio, Tijjani Noslin is an important attacker with 4 season goals and 1 assist, his form is rising

Matteo Cancellieri has 4 goals and 2 assists this season, his form is stable

Toma Bašić contributed 2 goals and 3 assists, his form is stable

Not nominated are Kenneth Taylor (3G/2A) and Mattia Zaccagni (3G/0A)

Inter relies on Lautaro Martínez, who scored 16 goals and provided 5 assists, and whose form is rising

Marcus Thuram is also a key player with 13 season goals and 5 assists, showing rising form

Nicolò Barella is an important pillar in midfield with 3 goals and 8 assists

Not nominated are Federico Dimarco (6G/17A), Hakan Çalhanoğlu (9G/4A), Pio Esposito (6G/4A), Piotr Zieliński (6G/3A), Denzel Dumfries (3G/1A), and Manuel Akanji (2G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Lazio goalkeeper Edoardo Motta played 8 times this season

Inter goalkeeper Josep Martínez appeared 3 times

Lazio kept 15 clean sheets this season

Inter recorded 17 clean sheets in the current season

Influences

Lazio scored an average of 1.14 goals and conceded 0.95 goals at home

This suggests a moderate home advantage in defense

Inter scores an average of 2.36 goals and concedes 1.14 goals away from home

The Stadio Olimpico saw an average of 3.4 goals in the last 5 matches

In 3 out of 5 games, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals

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