Serie A
Hellas Verona - Como
05/10/2026, 10:30 AM
Expected Goals
0.6
1.5
0.9
0:0
23%0:1
19%1:1
14%1:0
11%0:2
9%What influences the xG?
Hellas Verona
Como
The Lab
- 1Como with Ignace Van der Brempt: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Hellas Verona with Abdou Harroui: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Como: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- 4Hellas Verona: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 5Como: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
21%
Draw
39%
Away Win
41%
Goals
Over 1.5
47%
Under 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
20%
Under 2.5
80%
Over 3.5
7%
Under 3.5
93%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
59%
Away or Draw
79%
No Draw
61%
Both Score
Yes
29%
No
71%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Como with 41%, while a home win for Hellas Verona is at 21%
- Como (6th place) are fighting for European spots and face relegation-threatened Hellas Verona (19th place), reflecting a significant quality difference in season performance
- Como has recently dominated head-to-head matches, with two wins and one draw in the last three encounters and a goal difference of 7:4
Risk Factors
- Hellas Verona shows low offensive output at home, with an average of only 0.67 goals scored per game
- Como has shown a declining defense recently according to advanced statistics, with an average of 2.25 goals conceded compared to 0.8 goals conceded on average for the season
- The mathematical analysis suggests a potentially low-scoring game, with a 29% probability for 'Both teams to score' and 20% for 'Over 2.5 goals'
Overview
Hellas Verona (19th place, 20 points) host Como (6th place, 62 points) at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi. Serie A match on May 10, 2026, 12:30 PM. Hellas Verona are fighting for survival, while Como are competing for a European spot.
Form
Hellas Verona's form in the last five games is LLLDD (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). Their last two matches ended in draws. Como shows a form of LLLWD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses). Their last game was a draw. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Hellas Verona averages 0.69 goals scored and 1.63 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.39 goals conceded. Como is stronger offensively with an average of 1.69 goals per game and a solid defense with 0.8 goals conceded per match. Away from home, Como averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded. Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi has seen an average of 1.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 1 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In three head-to-head matches, Hellas Verona have zero wins, Como have two wins, and there has been one draw. Como scored seven goals in these encounters, Hellas Verona four. The last meeting on October 29, 2025, saw Como win away with a 1:3 score. Como has dominated recent head-to-head encounters.
Key Players
For Hellas Verona, Kieron Bowie is an important offensive player with 3 season goals and an average rating of 6.9 in his last five games. Andrias Edmundsson has scored one goal in his last five games with an average rating of 6.82. Roberto Gagliardini shows stable form with an average rating of 6.86 in his last five games. For Como, Nico Paz is a key player with 12 season goals and 6 assists, an average rating of 7.53, contributing 2 goals and 1 assist recently. Lucas Da Cunha shows rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five games. Anastasios Douvikas has scored 1 goal in his last five games, but his form is declining. Not nominated for Como are Martin Baturina (6 goals, 3 assists) and Jacobo Ramón (2 goals, 0 assists).
Goalkeepers
Lorenzo Montipò for Hellas Verona has kept 6 clean sheets in 32 season appearances. Jean Butez for Como has kept 17 clean sheets in 35 season appearances, demonstrating a strong season performance.
Influences
Hellas Verona has scored an average of 0.67 goals and conceded 1.39 goals per game at their home stadium. Como has shown strong away performance with an average of 1.67 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded. At Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, the last five games averaged 1.4 goals per match.