Serie A
Cagliari - Udinese
05/09/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.2
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
13%1:0
11%0:1
10%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Cagliari
Udinese
The Lab
- 1Udinese: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 2Cagliari with Paul Mendy: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Udinese with Jesper Karlstrƶm: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 2.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Cagliari: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
35%
Draw
33%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
66%
Under 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
18%
Under 3.5
82%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
65%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a very balanced match, with a slightly higher home win probability of 35% for Cagliari
- Udinese shows a positive form development, currently scoring more frequently with an average of 2.0 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.3
- Udinese demonstrated a strong offensive performance in the last 5 games with an average of 5.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Cagliari, in their last 5 games, shows a counter-attacking style with an average of only 3.0 shots on target
- The pipeline predictions indicate an extremely close match, with a high draw probability of 33%
Overview
Cagliari (15th place, 37 points) host Udinese (11th place, 47 points) at the Sardegna Arena. The Serie A match takes place on May 9, 2026, 3:00 PM. Cagliari is fighting for points in the lower mid-table, while Udinese holds a comfortable mid-table position.
Form
Cagliari's form across all competitions is LWLWD. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss. This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games. Udinese shows a form of DWLDW, corresponding to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. Cagliari's recent results include a 0-0 draw against Bologna and a 3-2 win against Atalanta. Udinese celebrated a 2-0 victory against Torino and achieved a 3-3 draw against Lazio.
Statistics
Cagliari scores an average of 1.03 goals per game and concedes 1.4 goals. At home, they are defensively stronger with an average of 1.05 goals conceded and score 1.05 goals. Udinese scores an average of 1.23 goals per match and concedes 1.31 goals. Away, they score 1.25 goals and concede 1.3 goals. At the Sardegna Arena, an average of 2.0 goals per game are scored, and both teams scored in 40% of games, with over 2.5 goals also occurring in 40% of games.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Cagliari secured 1 win, while Udinese won 2 times and 2 matches ended in a draw. The goal difference is 5:7 in favour of Udinese. The last encounter on October 5, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw. Udinese has shown to be the more dominant team in recent meetings.
Key Players
For Cagliari, Sebastiano Esposito, with 6 season goals and 5 assists, and Paul Mendy, who scored 2 goals in 5 appearances, are important offensive players. Gianluca Gaetano contributed 2 goals and 3 assists this season. For Udinese, Arthur Atta stands out, scoring 3 goals in the last 5 games and having a total of 5 season goals and 3 assists. NicolĆ² Zaniolo has 5 goals and 6 assists this season. Kingsley Ehizibue scored 2 goals in the last 5 games.
Goalkeepers
Elia Caprile of Cagliari made 35 appearances this season and kept 8 clean sheets. Maduka Okoye, the Udinese goalkeeper, played in 27 matches and achieved 10 clean sheets.
Influences
The Sardegna Arena averages 2.0 total goals per game. In 40% of the last 5 matches at the stadium, both teams scored. Also, over 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of the last 5 matches.