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Serie A

Parma - Roma

05/10/2026, 04:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Parma
0.9
Total xG
2.0
Roma
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

10%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
PARROM

Parma

Attack weakness (0.61x league average)
-0.38
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap)
-0.07
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.04
Mateo Pellegrino on the bench (8 goals, 1 assists)
Adrián Bernabé not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
45% of goal output missing (only 66% available)

Roma

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.26
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.26
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Niccolò Pisilli on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Devyne Rensch on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Roma with Stephan El Shaarawy: 4.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Parma with Adrián Bernabé: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Roma: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

34%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a 38% away win probability for Roma
  • Form Trend: Roma shows a positive form development with recently 2.4 goals per game, while Parma stagnates at 0.8 goals
  • Head-to-Head: Roma dominated the history with 3 wins and a goal difference of 8:1
Risk Factors
  • Parma's offensive power is impaired with only 67% of the usual starting eleven strength available, as Mateo Pellegrino (8G/1A) and Adrián Bernabé (3G/1A) are missing
  • Parma averaged only 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
  • Parma scored an average of only 0.72 goals per home game
Overview

Parma (13th place, 42 points) will host Roma (6th place, 64 points) at the Stadio Ennio Tardini. The Serie A match is scheduled for May 10, 2026, at 6:00 PM. Parma is in the mid-table, while Roma is contending for a European competition spot

Form

Parma's form in the last five matches is DDWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). During this period, they achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Roma comes into the match with a form of LWDWW, which translates to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games. Parma suffered a loss in their most recent outing, while Roma is on a positive run with two consecutive wins. According to advanced stats, Parma's recent goal production (0.8 goals per game) shows a negative trend compared to their season average (0.9 goals per game). Roma, on the other hand, is scoring more frequently recently (2.4 goals per game) than their season average (1.5 goals per game)

Statistics

Parma has scored an average of 0.71 goals per game this season and conceded 1.2 goals per game. At home, Parma scored an average of 0.72 goals and conceded 1.22 goals per home game. Roma shows stronger offensive performance with an average of 1.49 goals per game and a solid defense, conceding only 0.83 goals per game. Away from home, Roma scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes 1.36 goals per away game. Parma kept 12 clean sheets, while Roma achieved 16 clean sheets. At the Stadio Ennio Tardini, an average of 2.0 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and only 1 of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the direct encounters between the two teams, there have been 3 matches. Roma won all 3 of these matches, while Parma recorded no wins and no draws. Parma scored 1 goal in these games, while Roma was clearly superior with 8 goals. The last encounter on October 29, 2025, ended in a 1:2 away victory for Roma. Roma has dominated the recent head-to-head fixtures

Key Players

For Parma, Gabriel Strefezza has been active in 5 of the last 5 games with 1 goal and 1 assist. Nesta Elphege scored 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 games. Enrico Delprato contributed to 1 goal in 5 games. For Roma, Donyell Malen is in top form in the last 5 games with 4 goals and 2 assists. Mario Hermoso contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Gianluca Mancini scored 2 goals in the last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Parma's goalkeeper, Zion Suzuki, played 18 season games. Roma's goalkeeper Mile Svilar played 35 season games and contributed to 16 clean sheets. Parma collectively achieved 12 clean sheets this season

Influences

Parma has scored an average of 0.72 goals and conceded 1.22 goals in home matches. The Stadio Ennio Tardini has seen an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and only 1 of 5 games finished with over 2.5 goals

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