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Serie A

Pisa - Napoli

05/17/2026, 10:00 AM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Pisa
0.7
Total xG
2.1
Napoli
1.4
Most Likely Scores

0:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:1

14%

0:2

12%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
PISNAP

Pisa

Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 2, 18 places gap)
-0.13
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (0.4 vs 0.8 season average)
-0.11
12% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
Strong home record (1.1 vs 0.8 goals/match)

Napoli

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.13
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 20, 18 places gap)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.04
Matteo Politano  not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists)
Kevin De Bruyne  on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Miguel Gutiérrez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Pisa with Michel Aebischer: 0.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Napoli with Eljif Elmas: 6.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Napoli: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

17%

Draw

31%

Away Win

52%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

48%

Away or Draw

83%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Clear table difference: Napoli is in 2nd place, while Pisa is in last place 20
  • Pisa's poor form: The home team lost their last five consecutive matches
  • Pipeline probability: Mathematical analysis predicts an away win with a probability of 52%
Risk Factors
  • Pisa scores only an average of 0.69 home goals per game
  • Limited data availability for duel statistics
Overview

Pisa (20th place, 18 points) host Napoli (2nd place, 70 points) in a Serie A match at the Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

The match takes place on May 17, 2026, 12:00 PM

Napoli are aiming for Champions League qualification, while Pisa are battling against relegation

Form

Pisa's current form across all competitions is LLLLL (0 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses)

Pisa's last five games resulted in five consecutive losses

Napoli shows a form of DLWDL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

Their last five matches yielded one win, two draws, and two losses for Napoli

Statistics

Pisa averages 0.69 goals scored per game and concedes 1.83 goals this season

At home, Pisa scores an average of 0.69 goals and concedes 1.77 goals

The team kept five clean sheets this season, four of them at home

Napoli averages 1.5 goals scored per game and concedes 1.0 goals

Away from home, Napoli scores 1.47 goals per game and concedes 1.20 goals

Napoli recorded 13 clean sheets this season, seven of them away

The Arena Garibaldi averages 2.4 total goals per game in the last five matches

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

Historically, there has been one head-to-head encounter between these teams

Napoli won this single match, leading the record with 1-0 victories

The last meeting ended in a 3-2 victory for Napoli on September 22, 2025

Napoli dominated the only direct encounter

Key Players

Pisa relies on Stefano Moreo, who contributed 6 goals and 1 assist this season

Mehdi Léris scored 2 goals and 3 assists and shows stable form

Antonio Caracciolo has scored 2 goals, but his form is declining

For Napoli, Rasmus Højlund is a key player with 10 goals and 4 assists, showing good form

Scott McTominay contributed 9 goals and 3 assists and shows stable form

Alisson Santos is another important attacking force with 4 goals and also shows stable form

Goalkeepers

Pisa's goalkeeper Adrian Semper made 23 appearances

Pisa's team kept five clean sheets this season

Napoli relies on goalkeeper Alex Meret, who played in 9 games

Napoli recorded 13 clean sheets this season

Influences

Pisa scores an average of 0.69 goals at home and concedes 1.77 goals

The Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani saw an average of 2.4 goals in the last five matches

Both teams scored in 60% of recent games at this stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%

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