Serie A
Sassuolo - Lecce
05/17/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.2
0.9
1:1
15%1:0
13%0:0
12%2:0
9%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Sassuolo
Lecce
The Lab
- 1Sassuolo: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 2Sassuolo with Woyo Coulibaly: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Sassuolo: 56% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 9)
- 4Sassuolo: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Sassuolo: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
31%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Prediction Advantage: The mathematical analysis indicates a 45% win probability for Sassuolo and predicts 1.33 expected home goals
- Sassuolo's Current Form: Sassuolo is currently scoring more frequently (avg 1.5 goals) than their season average (avg 1.3 goals) and shows a positive form trend
- Lecce's Away Weakness: Lecce recorded an average of only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games and scores an average of 0.67 goals away from home
Risk Factors
- Injury Concerns for Sassuolo: Sassuolo are missing key players such as S. Walukiewicz (Leg Injury) and F. Candé (Cruciate Ligament Tear) in defense
- Lecce's Low Goal Threat: Lecce recorded an average of only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Potentially Low-Scoring Match: The model predicts a 45% probability of both teams scoring and a 39% probability for over 2.5 goals
Overview
Sassuolo (11th place, 49 points) host Lecce (17th place, 32 points) at MAPEI Stadium - CittĂ del Tricolore. The Serie A match takes place on May 17, 2026, 8:45 PM. Sassuolo is in the mid-table, while Lecce is fighting against relegation.
Form
Sassuolo's form in the last five games is LWDWL. This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Lecce's form in the last five games is LDDWL, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses.
Statistics
Sassuolo averages 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 goals conceded per season. At home, the average is 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded. Lecce averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per game. Away, Lecce also averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per game. Sassuolo kept 8 clean sheets this season, Lecce 9. Sassuolo's home games averaged 2.4 total goals. Both teams scored in 60% of games, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 60% of cases.
Head-to-Head
In the 4 head-to-head matches so far, Sassuolo won 1 and Lecce won 1, with 2 draws. The goal difference is 3:4 in favor of Lecce. The last encounter on October 18, 2025, ended in a 0:0 draw. Recent matches have been even.
Key Players
For Sassuolo, Armand Laurienté (6 goals, 9 assists), Domenico Berardi (8 goals, 4 assists), and Kristian Thorstvedt (4 goals, 4 assists) stand out. Laurienté shows a positive form trend with a rating improvement of 0.44. Andrea Pinamonti (8 goals/3 assists) and Cristian Volpato (2 goals/4 assists) are not nominated. For Lecce, Lameck Banda (4 goals, 3 assists), Lassana Coulibaly (3 goals, 1 assist), and Tiago Gabriel (2 goals) are the key players. Walid Cheddira shows a rising form trend with a rating improvement of 0.20.
Goalkeepers
For Sassuolo, Stefano Turati is in goal, with an average rating of 6.99 in 4 season appearances. Sassuolo recorded 8 clean sheets this season. For Lecce, Wladimiro Falcone guards the goal with 36 appearances and an average rating of 6.84. Lecce kept 9 clean sheets this season.
Influences
MAPEI Stadium - CittĂ del Tricolore saw an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches. In 3 out of 5 home games, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 games, there were over 2.5 goals. Sassuolo scores an average of 1.21 goals and concedes 1.21 goals at their home stadium. Lecce scores an average of 0.67 goals and concedes 1.33 goals away from home.