Serie A
Inter - Hellas Verona
05/17/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
2.8
0.7
2:0
14%1:1
10%3:0
10%2:1
9%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Inter
Hellas Verona
The Lab
- 1Inter: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Inter: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- 3Inter: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Hellas Verona: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 5Inter with Pio Esposito: 6.3 goals/90 min. Without: 2.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
70%
Draw
21%
Away Win
10%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
90%
Away or Draw
30%
No Draw
79%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Inter has only 52% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available, with Federico Dimarco, Marcus Thuram, Nicolò Barella, Piotr Zieliński, Alessandro Bastoni, Yann Bisseck, and Manuel Akanji missing
- The mathematical analysis shows a high probability of an Inter home win at 70%
- Hellas Verona shows poor form with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 games and concedes an average of 1.78 goals per away match
Risk Factors
- Hellas Verona averaged only 3 shots on target in recent matches
- Hellas Verona's goal production is currently stalled at an average of 0.5 goals, compared to their season average of 0.8 goals
Overview
Inter (1st place, 85 points) host Hellas Verona (19th place, 20 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. The Serie A match takes place on May 17, 2026, 3:00 PM. League leaders Inter face a relegation-threatened opponent with minimal chances of survival.
Form
Inter shows excellent form with a 'WDWWW' in their last five games (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team recorded 4 wins and 1 draw, most recently with three consecutive wins. Hellas Verona, on the other hand, is in crisis with a 'LLDDL' form. They failed to win any of their last five matches, drawing 2 times and suffering 3 losses, most recently a loss.
Statistics
Inter has been offensively strong throughout the season, averaging 2.36 goals scored per game and maintaining a stable defense with only 0.86 goals conceded. At home, they are particularly effective, scoring 2.33 goals and conceding 0.71. Hellas Verona, however, averages only 0.67 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.61 goals. Away from home, their conceded goal average is 1.78. The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza averages 3.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of matches and over 2.5 goals occurring in 60% of games.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Inter dominated with 4 wins and 1 draw against Hellas Verona. Inter scored a total of 12 goals, while Hellas Verona managed 4 goals. The last meeting on November 2, 2025, ended with a 2-1 home win for Inter.
Key Players
For Inter, Lautaro Martínez is a crucial attacker with 17 season goals and 6 assists, holding an average rating of 7.37. Petar Sučić shows rising form with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games and a season rating of 6.79. Henrikh Mkhitaryan contributed 2 goals in the last 5 games and has a season rating of 6.94. For Hellas Verona, Kieron Bowie is an important attacker with 3 season goals and 2 goals in the last 5 games, rated 6.87. Defender Martin Frese scored 2 season goals with a rating of 6.89. Midfielder Antoine Bernede has 1 season goal and 2 assists with a rating of 6.68.
Goalkeepers
In goal for Inter is Yann Sommer, who kept 18 clean sheets in 32 appearances this season. For Hellas Verona, Lorenzo Montipò guards the net, achieving 6 clean sheets in 33 appearances.
Influences
Inter benefits from a strong home advantage at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, where they average 2.33 goals scored and concede only 0.71 goals. Hellas Verona is defensively vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 1.78 goals per game. The stadium itself tends to be high-scoring, averaging 3.0 goals per game.