Serie A
Roma - Lazio
05/17/2026, 10:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.5
1.0
1:1
14%1:0
10%0:0
10%2:1
9%2:0
9%What influences the xG?
Roma
Lazio
The Lab
- 1Lazio: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 2Roma with Robinio Vaz: 7.3 goals/90 min. Without: 2.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Lazio: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Lazio: 56% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 9)
- 5Lazio: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
30%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Roma is in excellent form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 45% and 1.44 expected home goals for Roma
- Roma plays with a strong home record, averaging 1.55 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded per home game
Risk Factors
- Lazio averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating an average offensive output
- Lazio is missing five players due to muscle injuries, shoulder problems, a suspension, and thigh problems
Overview
AS Roma (5th place, 67 points) host Lazio (9th place, 51 points) in the Derby della Capitale at the Stadio Olimpico
Serie A match on May 17, 2026, 12:00 PM
Roma is fighting for a European qualification spot, while Lazio is positioned in the mid-table
Form
Roma shows excellent form with WDWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
In their last five matches, they recorded 4 wins and 1 draw
Most recently, Roma won 3-2 away against Parma
This was followed by a 4-0 home win against Fiorentina and a 2-0 away win against Bologna
Lazio has a form of DDWLL, suffering 2 losses, 2 draws, and 1 win in their last five games
Lazio lost their last two matches 0-2 and 0-3 against Inter respectively
Statistics
Roma averages 1.53 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded per game
At home, they are particularly strong with an average of 1.55 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded
Lazio averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.03 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Lazio scores an average of 1.08 goals and concedes 1 goal
Roma achieved 16 clean sheets this season, Lazio 15
At the Stadio Olimpico, an average of 3.4 goals were scored in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) at the Stadio Olimpico
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) at the Stadio Olimpico
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Roma leads with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Lazio, with 1 match ending in a draw
The goal difference is 5:2 in favor of Roma
The last encounter was won by Roma 1-0 at home on September 21, 2025
Roma has shown dominance in recent direct encounters
Key Players
Donyell Malen from Roma is a key player with 13 goals and 2 assists this season, showing rising form with 6 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games
Mario Hermoso, a Roma defender, contributed 3 goals and 2 assists this season, with a strong rising form of 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 matches
Niccolò Pisilli, a midfielder for Roma, scored 2 goals and 3 assists this season, and his form is rising with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Tijjani Noslin is Lazio's most dangerous attacker with 4 goals and 1 assist this season, his form is rising with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Matteo Cancellieri from Lazio contributed 4 goals and 2 assists this season, his form is stable with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 matches
Boulaye Dia, also an attacker for Lazio, scored 1 goal and 2 assists this season and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Mile Svilar is Roma's goalkeeper and has made 36 appearances this season
Roma kept 16 clean sheets this season
Alessio Furlanetto is in goal for Lazio but has no appearances this season
Lazio achieved 15 clean sheets this season
Influences
Roma enjoys a significant home advantage, averaging 1.55 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded in home matches
The history at the Stadio Olimpico shows an average of 3.4 goals per game
2 out of 5 matches at the stadium ended with both teams scoring and 3 out of 5 matches with over 2.5 goals