Serie A
Atalanta - Bologna
05/17/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.4
1.3
1:1
11%2:1
9%2:0
7%3:1
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Atalanta
Bologna
The Lab
- 1Bologna with João Mário: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Atalanta with Raoul Bellanova: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
24%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
65%
Under 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
44%
Under 3.5
56%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Atalanta's Home Advantage: The model predicts 2.02 expected home goals for Atalanta
- Offensive Strength: Atalanta recently averaged 5.2 shots on target and shows a positive form trend in goal production (currently 1.8 compared to a season average of 1.6)
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win with a 52% probability
Risk Factors
- Injuries and Suspensions: Atalanta will be without K. Odilon (Muscle Injury), I. Hien (Yellow Card Suspension), and L. Bernasconi (Knee Injury). Bologna will be missing J. Lucumí Bonilla (Yellow Card Suspension), M. Vitík (Ankle Injury), N. Cambiaghi (Thigh Muscle Strain), and N. Casale (Calf Injury)
- Bologna's Away Offense: Bologna averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Venue Statistics: At Gewiss Stadium, both teams scored in only 40% of the last 5 matches, and only 20% ended with over 2.5 goals
Overview
Atalanta (7th place, 58 points) host Bologna (8th place, 52 points) at Gewiss Stadium in a Serie A match on May 17, 2026, 6:00 PM
Both teams are vying for improved positions in the upper half of the table
The mathematical analysis indicates a home win with a 52% probability
Form
The home team's form is DDLDW
Atalanta recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games across all competitions
Atalanta won their last match away against AC Milan with a score of 3-2
The away team's form is LLLDW
Bologna recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 games across all competitions
Bologna won their last match away against Napoli with a score of 3-2
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Atalanta averages 1.39 goals scored per game and concedes 0.94 goals
At home, Atalanta scores an average of 1.39 goals and concedes 0.78 goals
Bologna averages 1.25 goals scored per game and concedes 1.19 goals
Away from home, Bologna averages 1.26 goals scored and concedes 1.00 goal
An average of 2.2 goals per game are scored at Gewiss Stadium
The pipeline analysis calculates over 2.5 goals with a 65% probability
Head-to-Head
There have been a total of 5 head-to-head matches between Atalanta and Bologna
Atalanta won 2 matches, Bologna also won 2, and 1 encounter ended in a draw
Atalanta scored 6 goals, while Bologna scored 4 goals in these encounters
The last meeting on January 7, 2026, saw Atalanta win away with a score of 2-0
Key Players
Nikola Krstović of Atalanta scored 10 goals and 5 assists this season, with a form trend of -0.23
Charles De Ketelaere (Atalanta) has 3 goals and 5 assists with a form trend of -0.37
Éderson (Atalanta) contributed 2 goals and 1 assist with a rising form trend of +0.22
Santiago Castro of Bologna scored 7 goals and 2 assists
Federico Bernardeschi (Bologna) contributed with 3 goals and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
Marco Carnesecchi of Atalanta played 36 games this season and kept 13 clean sheets
Bologna achieved 11 clean sheets throughout the season, 4 of which were in away games
Influences
Atalanta shows a solid defensive performance at home, conceding an average of 0.78 goals per game
Bologna scores an average of 1.26 goals away from home
At Gewiss Stadium, both teams scored in 40% of the last 5 matches
The mathematical analysis predicts that both teams will score with a 65% probability