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Serie A

Juventus - Fiorentina

05/17/2026, 10:00 AM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Juventus
2.2
Total xG
2.9
Fiorentina
0.7
Most Likely Scores

2:0

13%

1:1

10%

3:0

10%

2:1

9%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
JUVFIO

Juventus

Attack strength (1.58x league average)
+1.03
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.25
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.17
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.15
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap)
+0.12
Jonathan David on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists)
Khéphren Thuram on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Jérémie Boga on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)

Fiorentina

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap)
-0.10
Rolando Mandragora on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists)
Albert Gudmundsson not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Jack Harrison not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juventus: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Juventus with Fabio Miretti: 6 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Fiorentina with Jacopo Fazzini: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Juventus: 69% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

70%

Draw

21%

Away Win

10%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

90%

Away or Draw

30%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high home win probability of 70% for Juventus
  • Juventus is unbeaten in their last 5 games, showing strong form
  • Juventus' home advantage is evident with an average of 1.67 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded per home game
Risk Factors
  • Fiorentina is missing key players Rolando Mandragora (6G/3A), Albert Gudmundsson (5G/4A), and Jack Harrison (1G/3A), leaving only 69% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available
  • Juventus' goal production has recently stalled at an average of 1.3 goals, compared to their season average of 1.8 goals
  • Fiorentina averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Juventus (3rd place, 68 points) host Fiorentina (15th place, 38 points) at the Juventus Stadium

Serie A match on May 17, 2026, 12:00 PM

Juventus is fighting for a Champions League spot, while Fiorentina is in the mid-table

The mathematical analysis sees Juventus as clear favorites with a 70% home win probability

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Juventus is unbeaten in their last 5 games (WWDDW)

They recorded 3 wins and 2 draws

Their last match was a 1-0 away win against Lecce

Fiorentina has 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games (WDDLD)

Their last match ended in a 0-0 home draw against Genoa

Statistics

Juventus averages 1.64 goals scored per game and concedes 0.83 goals per game

At home, Juventus averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded

Fiorentina averages 1.06 goals scored per game and concedes 1.36 goals per game

Away from home, Fiorentina averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded

The Juventus Stadium sees an average of 1.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of matches at the Juventus Stadium

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 0% of matches at the Juventus Stadium

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juventus won 2, Fiorentina won 1, and there were 2 draws

The goal difference in these matches is 5:6 in favor of Fiorentina

The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on November 22, 2025

Juventus has been more dominant in recent head-to-head matches

Key Players

Juventus: Kenan Yıldız (10 goals, 6 assists, Avg Rating 7.42), Weston McKennie (5 goals, 5 assists, Avg Rating 7.04), Dušan Vlahović (5 goals, 1 assist, Avg Rating 6.85)

Fiorentina: Nicolò Fagioli (2 goals, 3 assists, Avg Rating 7.22), Roberto Piccoli (3 goals, 1 assist, Avg Rating 6.66), Robin Gosens (3 goals, 1 assist, Avg Rating 6.83)

Goalkeepers

Juventus goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio has kept 8 clean sheets in home games this season

Fiorentina goalkeeper David de Gea has kept 3 clean sheets in away games this season

Influences

Juventus shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded

The Juventus Stadium averages 1.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of matches, while over 2.5 goals were scored in 0% of matches

The pitch surface is grass

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