Serie A
Udinese - Cremonese
05/17/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.1
0.6
1:0
16%0:0
14%2:0
13%1:1
13%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Udinese
Cremonese
The Lab
- 1Cremonese with Youssef Maleh: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Udinese: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 3Cremonese: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- 4Cremonese: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Udinese with Jesper Karlström: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 2.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
56%
Draw
30%
Away Win
15%
Goals
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
35%
Under 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
85%
Away or Draw
44%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
38%
No
62%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win with 56% probability and 1.47 expected home goals
- Current Form: Udinese displays significantly better form with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games compared to Cremonese
- Tactical Advantage: Udinese is scoring more frequently recently (2.0) than their season average (1.3), while Cremonese concedes many away goals (1.75)
Risk Factors
- Squad Availability: Udinese has only 88% of their usual starting eleven's goal threat; key players like N. Zaniolo (5 goals, 6 assists) and J. Ekkelenkamp (5 goals, 3 assists) are missing
- Low Scoring Venue: The Dacia Arena has seen an average of only 1.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches
- Home Team Possession: Udinese averaged 47% possession in their last 5 games, indicating a more passive playing style
Overview
Udinese (10th place, 50 points) host Cremonese (18th place, 31 points) at the Dacia Arena
Serie A match on May 17, 2026, 8:45 PM
Udinese are in mid-table, while Cremonese are fighting against relegation
Form
Udinese's form across all competitions is WLDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The home team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Udinese's recent results include 2:0 vs Cagliari (A), 2:0 vs Torino (H), 3:3 vs Lazio (A), 0:1 vs Parma (H), and 3:0 vs AC Milan (A)
Cremonese's form across all competitions is LDLLW
The visitors achieved 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 games
Cremonese's recent results include 3:0 vs Pisa (H), 1:2 vs Lazio (H), 0:4 vs Napoli (A), 0:0 vs Torino (H), and 0:1 vs Cagliari (A)
Statistics
Udinese scores an average of 1.25 goals per game and concedes 1.28 goals
Cremonese scores an average of 0.83 goals and concedes 1.47 goals per game
Udinese kept 11 clean sheets, while Cremonese managed 10
Udinese scored in 17 matches, Cremonese in 15 matches
The Dacia Arena has seen an average of 1.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches
In 0 of 5 matches at the Dacia Arena, both teams scored
1 of 5 matches at the Dacia Arena ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams
The last encounter on October 20, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw
Both teams scored 1 goal in their direct clashes
The historical record is even
Key Players
Udinese relies on Keinan Davis (Attacker) with 10 season goals and 4 assists
Arthur Atta (Midfielder) contributed 5 goals and 3 assists and shows a rising form trend
Oumar Solet (Defender) scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist
Cremonese's offense is led by Federico Bonazzoli (Attacker) with 9 season goals and 2 assists
Jamie Vardy (Attacker) contributed 6 goals and 2 assists
Youssef Maleh (Midfielder) scored 1 season goal
Goalkeepers
Udinese is expected to start Maduka Okoye in goal, who recorded 11 clean sheets this season
For Cremonese, Emil Audero will be between the posts, having kept 10 clean sheets
Influences
Udinese scored an average of 1.29 home goals and conceded 1.43 home goals
Cremonese scored an average of 0.81 away goals and conceded 1.75 away goals
The Dacia Arena has an average of 1.4 goals per game
In 0 of 5 matches at the Dacia Arena, both teams scored