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Serie A

Cagliari - Torino

05/17/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Cagliari
1.0
Total xG
2.1
Torino
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

12%

1:0

10%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
CAGTOR

Cagliari

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.38
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Michael Folorunsho on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Torino

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03
Ché Adams on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Cesare Casadei on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
Valentino Lazaro on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Torino: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    Torino with Matteo Prati: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Cagliari with Alessandro Deiola: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Cagliari: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Torino: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

33%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Slight favoritism for Torino: The mathematical analysis sees Torino with a 38% win probability
  • Torino's better offense and form trend: Torino is currently scoring more (1.5 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals), while Cagliari is stagnant (1.0 goals)
  • Torino's weak away defense: Torino concedes an average of 2.29 goals per away game, offering Cagliari a chance to score at home
Risk Factors
  • Torino concedes an average of 2.29 goals per away game
  • Torino averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Cagliari has several players out due to injury or suspension, including L. Mazzitelli and R. Idrissi
Overview

Cagliari (16th place, 37 points) host Torino (12th place, 44 points) at the Sardegna Arena. The Serie A match will take place on May 17, 2026, 8:45 PM. Cagliari is battling against relegation, while Torino is positioned in the middle of the table.

Form

Cagliari's form in the last 5 games is WLWDL, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Cagliari's goal production is currently stagnant at 1.0 goals per game, with a season average of 1.2 goals. Torino shows a form of WDDLW, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Torino is currently scoring more with 1.5 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.3 goals. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Cagliari scores an average of 1.0 goals per game and concedes 1.42 goals per game this season. In home matches, the average is 1.0 goals scored and 1.1 goals conceded. Torino averages 1.14 goals scored per game and concedes 1.64 goals per game. Away from home, Torino scores 1.14 goals but concedes 2.29 goals per match. The Sardegna Arena has seen an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and 2 of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

In the previous 5 head-to-head matches, the record is balanced: Cagliari won 2 games, Torino also 2, and 1 match ended in a draw. Cagliari scored a total of 6 goals, while Torino recorded 7 goals. The last encounter on December 27, 2025, ended with a 2:1 victory for Cagliari.

Key Players

For Cagliari, Sebastiano Esposito stands out with 6 goals and 5 assists this season, scoring 1 goal in the last 5 games and showing stable form. Paul Mendy has been in good form in the last 5 matches with 2 goals in 5 appearances. Michel Adopo has 1 goal and 2 assists this season, contributing 1 assist in the last 5 games, also with stable form. For Torino, Giovanni Simeone is the top scorer with 11 season goals, 3 of which came in the last 5 games. Nikola Vlašić has scored 8 goals and provided 3 assists this season, contributing 1 goal in the last 5 matches. Marcus Pedersen has shown rising form in the last 5 games with 1 goal and 2 assists.

Goalkeepers

For Cagliari, Elia Caprile is in goal, having recorded 8 clean sheets this season with an average rating of 6.93. He shows stable form. For Torino, Alberto Paleari is the goalkeeper, with 12 clean sheets in fewer appearances and an average rating of 6.92. His form trend is rising, with a last 5 games rating of 7.25.

Influences

Cagliari appears defensively more stable at their home stadium, conceding an average of 1.1 goals. Torino is more vulnerable away, conceding 2.29 goals per game. The Sardegna Arena recently averaged 2.4 goals per match. The pitch surface is grass.

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