Serie A
Genoa - AC Milan
05/17/2026, 10:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.2
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
12%0:1
10%1:0
10%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
Genoa
AC Milan
The Lab
- 1Genoa with Stefano Sabelli: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 2AC Milan with Santiago Gimenez: 3.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
32%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- League Position: AC Milan (4th place) is significantly higher than Genoa (14th place) and is fighting for a Champions League spot
- Head-to-Head: AC Milan dominated the last 5 encounters with 2 wins and 3 draws
- Defensive Strength: AC Milan boasts a strong defense with an average of 0.89 goals conceded per game, and only 0.68 away
Risk Factors
- Limited attacking power for AC Milan: Only 69% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available, as Rafael Leão, Christian Pulisic, Alexis Saelemaekers, and Luka Modrić are not in the lineup
- Negative form trend for AC Milan: Recent goal production, averaging 0.75 goals, is significantly lower than their season average of 1.49 goals
- Low shots on target for AC Milan: AC Milan averaged only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Genoa (14th place, 41 points) host AC Milan (4th place, 67 points) at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. The Serie A match takes place on May 17, 2026, 12:00 PM. The mathematical analysis predicts an extremely balanced game with a home win probability of 33%, a draw of 32%, and an away win of 34%. The expected goals are 1.11 for Genoa and 1.13 for AC Milan. Milan is still competing for a Champions League spot, while Genoa is in the middle of the table.
Form
Genoa's form in the last five games is WWLDD. The team achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their last two matches ended in draws. AC Milan shows a form of LWDLL in their last five games, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. The Rossoneri lost their last two matches. Genoa has recently shown stable form, while AC Milan is experiencing a negative trend.
Statistics
Genoa scores an average of 1.11 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.33 goals per game this season. At home, they score 1.11 goals and concede 1.26 goals per home game. They kept 9 clean sheets. AC Milan averages 1.39 goals per game with a solid defense conceding only 0.89 goals on average. Away, they are strong with 1.37 goals scored and 0.68 goals conceded per game, securing 15 clean sheets. At the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, an average of 3.4 goals per game were scored, with both teams scoring in 40% of matches, and over 2.5 goals in 60% of games.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Genoa has no wins, AC Milan has won 2 times, and 3 games ended in a draw. The goal difference is 5:7 in favor of AC Milan. The last encounter in January 2026 ended in a 1:1 draw. AC Milan has been the dominant team in recent direct meetings.
Key Players
For Genoa, Lorenzo Colombo, Ruslan Malinovskyi, and Vitinha are key players in the starting eleven. Lorenzo Colombo, an attacker, scored 7 goals and 1 assist this season with an average rating of 6.70. Ruslan Malinovskyi (midfielder) contributed 6 goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 6.97, but shows a declining form trend. Vitinha, also an attacker, has 5 goals and 1 assist, his form is stable with 0 goals and 0 assists in the last 5 games. For AC Milan, Adrien Rabiot, Christopher Nkunku, and Strahinja Pavlović are central figures. Adrien Rabiot (midfielder) has scored 6 goals and 4 assists this season with an average rating of 7.27. Christopher Nkunku (attacker) scored 6 times and provided 3 assists. Defender Strahinja Pavlović has an impressive 5 goals and 1 assist to his name and an average rating of 7.00.
Goalkeepers
Genoa's goalkeeper Justin Bijlow played 15 games this season and recorded an average rating of 6.93. The Genoa team achieved 9 clean sheets this season. In AC Milan's goal is Mike Maignan, who has an average rating of 7.05 in 35 games. AC Milan managed to keep 15 clean sheets this season.
Influences
The home team Genoa has shown this season an average of 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded in home games. The visiting team AC Milan managed to score an average of 1.37 goals away and concede only 0.68 goals, indicating a strong away defense. At the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, an average of 3.4 goals per game were scored, with both teams scoring in 40% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 60% of games.