Serie A
Como - Parma
05/17/2026, 10:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.5
0.6
2:0
15%1:0
15%1:1
11%0:0
10%3:0
9%What influences the xG?
Como
Parma
The Lab
- 1Como with Ignace Van der Brempt: 4.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Como: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- 3Parma: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Parma: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 5Parma: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
67%
Draw
23%
Away Win
10%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
90%
Away or Draw
33%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of 67% for a Como home win
- Como is significantly higher in the league table (6th place) than Parma (13th place) and shows a superior defense (0.78 goals conceded/game)
- Como's ball-dominant playing style (56% possession, avg 4.2 shots on target) meets Parma's counter-attacking approach (39% possession, avg 2.2 shots on target)
Risk Factors
- Como's goal production shows a negative trend (currently 1.5 goals/game compared to 2.1 season average)
- Parma recorded only an average of 2.2 shots on target per game in their last five matches
- Como is missing Nico Paz (12 goals/6 assists) and Ălex Valle (1 goal/4 assists), reducing the active starting XI's goal threat by 12%
Overview
Como (6th place, 65 points) host Parma (13th place, 42 points) at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Serie A match on May 17, 2026, 12:00 PM
The hosts aim to solidify their position in the top half of the table, while Parma seeks to stay clear of the relegation zone
Form
Como's form in the last five games is L-L-W-D-W (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
Their last victory was a 1-0 away win against Hellas Verona
Parma's form in the last five games is D-W-W-L-L (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
Their last two matches resulted in losses, including a 2-3 home defeat against Roma
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Como scored an average of 1.67 goals per game this season and conceded 0.78 goals
At home, they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded per game
Parma averaged 0.75 goals scored and conceded 1.25 goals per game
Away from home, Parma scored 0.75 goals and conceded 1.25 goals per away game
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia sees an average of 3.0 goals per match
Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the three head-to-head matches, Como recorded one home win and two draws
Como scored 2 goals in these matches, Parma scored 1 goal
The last encounter on October 25, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw
Key Players
For Como, key attackers include Anastasios Douvikas with 13 goals and 1 assist in 36 season appearances
Lucas Da Cunha contributed 4 goals and 5 assists in 34 games
Martin Baturina scored 6 goals and 3 assists in 27 season appearances
For Parma, Mateo Pellegrino is a key player with 8 goals and 1 assist in 35 appearances
Gabriel Strefezza scored 2 goals and 2 assists in 13 season appearances
Mandela Keita contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 35 season appearances
Goalkeepers
Como's goalkeeper Jean Butez kept 18 clean sheets this season
Parma's goalkeeper Zion Suzuki achieved 8 clean sheets this season
Influences
Como scores an average of 1.70 goals at home and concedes 0.75 goals, suggesting a home advantage
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia averages 3.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 60%
The pitch surface is grass