Match report →
Hellas Verona – Roma0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Hellas Verona
0.72
Total xG
1.80
Roma
1.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Hellas Verona | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.60 | |
| Attack weakness (0.56x league average) | −0.59 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.25 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 4, 15 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 0.8 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 19, 15 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Antoine Bernede on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Wesley not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Evan Ndicka not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Neil El Aynaoui on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 100% available) |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Roma with a 42% win probability compared to 23% for Hellas Verona
- Form Difference: Roma is in excellent form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, while Hellas Verona remained winless (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)
- Statistical Superiority: Roma averages 1.54 goals scored per game and concedes only 0.84 goals, compared to Hellas Verona's 0.68 goals scored and 1.59 goals conceded
- Tactical Strength: Roma averaged 6.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating an offensive approach
Risks
- Limited data availability for similar weather conditions
- Hellas Verona showed low goal threat with an average of 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- The Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi is historically a low-scoring venue with an average of 1.0 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Hellas Verona23%
Draw36%
Roma42%
Goals
Over 1.555%
Under 1.545%
Over 2.527%
Under 2.573%
Over 3.511%
Under 3.589%
Double chance
Hellas Verona or draw58%
Roma or draw77%
No draw64%
Both teams score
Yes36%
No64%
Most likely scores
0:0
18%
0:1
16%
1:1
15%
1:0
10%
0:2
10%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Roma: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Roma: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- Hellas Verona with Domagoj Bradarić: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
- Hellas Verona: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Roma with Robinio Vaz: 9 goals/90 min. Without: 2.2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Hellas Verona 3-5-2 · Roma 3-4-2-1
Hellas Verona
- 1 L. Montipò
- 15 V. Nelsson
- 5 A. Edmundsson
- 6 N. Valentini
- 7 R. Belghali
- 11 J. Akpa Akpro
- 4 S. Lovric
- 21 A. Harroui
- 3 M. Frese
- 10 T. Suslov
- 18 K. Bowie
Roma
- 99 M. Svilar
- 23 G. Mancini
- 87 D. Ghilardi
- 22 M. Hermoso Canseco
- 19 M. Çelik
- 4 B. Cristante
- 61 N. Pisilli
- 2 D. Rensch
- 18 M. Malvano
- 21 P. Exequiel Dybala
- 14 D. Malen
Substitutes
- 14 P. Lirola Kosok
- 37 A. Bella-Kotchap
- 72 J. Ajayi
- 70 F. Cham
- 73 A. Ali Mohamed Elmusrati
- 19 T. Slotsager
- 12 D. Bradarić
- 41 I. Aguiar Tomich
- 94 G. Toniolo
- 34 S. Perilli
- 24 A. Bernede
- 36 C. Niasse
- 9 A. Sarr
- 90 I. Vermesan
- 30 L. Szimionas
- 78 R. Vaz
- 8 N. El Aynaoui
- 91 R. Żelezny
- 24 J. Ziółkowski
- 92 S. El Shaarawy
- 95 P. Gollini
- 9 A. Dovbyk
- 3 J. Esmoris Tasende
- 17 K. Kone
- 70 G. De Marzi
- 20 L. Venturino
- 74 M. Seck
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