Serie A
Hellas Verona - Roma
05/24/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
0.7
1.8
1.1
0:0
18%0:1
16%1:1
15%1:0
10%0:2
10%What influences the xG?
Hellas Verona
Roma
The Lab
- 1Roma: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Roma: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- 3Hellas Verona with Domagoj Bradarić: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
- 4Hellas Verona: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 5Roma with Robinio Vaz: 9 goals/90 min. Without: 2.2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
23%
Draw
36%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
55%
Under 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
27%
Under 2.5
73%
Over 3.5
11%
Under 3.5
89%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
77%
No Draw
64%
Both Score
Yes
36%
No
64%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Roma with a 42% win probability compared to 23% for Hellas Verona
- Form Difference: Roma is in excellent form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, while Hellas Verona remained winless (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)
- Statistical Superiority: Roma averages 1.54 goals scored per game and concedes only 0.84 goals, compared to Hellas Verona's 0.68 goals scored and 1.59 goals conceded
- Tactical Strength: Roma averaged 6.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating an offensive approach
Risk Factors
- Limited data availability for similar weather conditions
- Hellas Verona showed low goal threat with an average of 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- The Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi is historically a low-scoring venue with an average of 1.0 goals per game
Overview
Hellas Verona (19th place, 21 points) host Roma (4th place, 70 points) at the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi. The Serie A match takes place on May 24, 2026, 8:45 PM. While Hellas Verona fight against relegation, Roma are aiming for a Champions League spot.
Form
Hellas Verona is in a difficult phase, with a form of LDDLD in their last five games, corresponding to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses. Their last match ended in a draw.
Roma, on the other hand, shows strong form with a record of DWWWW in their last five matches. This includes 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with their last game being a win.
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Hellas Verona scores an average of 0.68 goals per game and concedes 1.59 goals per game. At home, they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded.
Roma is offensively stronger with an average of 1.54 goals per game and concedes only 0.84 goals. Away from home, Roma scores 1.5 goals and concedes 1.31 goals.
The Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi has seen an average of 1.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches. In none of these games did both teams score, and no match ended with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hellas Verona secured 2 wins and Roma claimed 3 wins. There were no draws in these encounters.
Hellas Verona scored a total of 6 goals, while Roma scored 8 goals.
The last meeting was won by Roma with a 2-0 score on September 28, 2025. Roma has been the more dominant side in recent direct confrontations.
Key Players
For Hellas Verona, Kieron Bowie is a key attacker with 4 season goals. Martin Frese and Rafik Belghali each contributed 2 season goals.
For Roma, Donyell Malen stands out with 13 goals and 2 assists. Matías Soulé is another key player with 6 goals and 5 assists, while Paulo Dybala contributed 2 goals and 5 assists.
Goalkeepers
Lorenzo Montipò of Hellas Verona played 34 times this season and kept 6 clean sheets.
Mile Svilar of Roma appeared 37 times in goal, keeping 17 clean sheets.
Influences
The Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi is known for low-scoring games, with an average of 1.0 goals per game in the last five matches. A statistic of 0/5 games where both teams scored and 0/5 games with over 2.5 goals highlights this trend.