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AC Milan – Cagliari1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
AC Milan
1.72
Total xG
2.62
Cagliari
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AC Milan | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 3, 13 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 16, 13 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Rafael Leão on the bench (9 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Marco Palestra on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Paul Mendy on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Michael Folorunsho not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 55% for AC Milan
- AC Milan demonstrates a strong home record with an average of 1.41 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded
- Cagliari has a weak away defense, conceding an average of 1.81 goals per game
Risks
- Cagliari averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Cagliari concedes an average of 1.81 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
AC Milan55%
Draw27%
Cagliari18%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
AC Milan or draw82%
Cagliari or draw45%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AC Milan with Santiago Gimenez: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Cagliari with Alberto Dossena: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- AC Milan: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Cagliari: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
AC Milan 3-5-2 · Cagliari 3-5-2
AC Milan
- 16 M. Maignan
- 23 F. Tomori
- 46 M. Gabbia
- 31 S. Pavlović
- 56 A. Saelemaekers
- 19 Y. Fofana
- 30 A. Jasari
- 12 A. Rabiot
- 33 D. Bartesaghi
- 7 S. Giménez
- 18 C. Nkunku
Cagliari
- 1 E. Caprile
- 32 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
- 26 Y. Mina González
- 15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
- 28 G. Zappa
- 8 M. Adopo
- 10 G. Gaetano
- 14 A. Deiola
- 33 A. Obert
- 29 G. Borrelli
- 94 S. Esposito
Substitutes
- 9 N. Füllkrug
- 27 D. Odogu
- 24 Z. Athekame
- 14 L. Modrić
- 2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 11 C. Pulisic
- 10 R. Conceição Leão
- 4 S. Ricci
- 96 L. Torriani
- 5 K. De Winter
- 8 R. Loftus-Cheek
- 45 J. Sardo
- 25 C. Mul
- 37 M. Pittarella
- 34 V. Vladimirov
- 25 I. Sulemana
- 22 A. Dossena
- 2 M. Palestra
- 19 A. Belotti
- 4 L. Mazzitelli
- 12 A. Sherri
- 17 M. Felici
- 24 G. Ciocci
- 37 Y. Trepy
- 36 N. Grandu
- 38 I. Sulev
- 20 A. Albarracín Basil
- 18 O. Raterink
- 31 P. Mendy
- 41 A. Russo
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