Serie A
Lecce - Genoa
05/24/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.3
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
11%0:1
11%1:2
9%0:2
9%What influences the xG?
Lecce
Genoa
The Lab
- 1Genoa with Tommaso Baldanzi: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 2Lecce with Gaby Jean: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.2 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
- 3Genoa: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Lecce: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
26%
Draw
31%
Away Win
43%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
57%
Away or Draw
74%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Mathematical Analysis: Genoa is the favorite with a 43% win probability
- Lecce's Rising Form: Lecce is currently scoring more frequently (avg. 1.5 goals) than their season average (avg. 0.9 goals)
- Genoa's Tactical Offense: In the last 5 games, Genoa averaged only 2.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Genoa with only 69% of goal threat available, without Vitinha (5G/1A), Leo ĂstigĂ„rd (5G/1A), Jeff Ekhator (3G/0A)
- Lecce scores an average of only 0.75 home goals per game (homeGoalsScoredAvg)
Overview
Lecce (17th place, 35 points) host Genoa (15th place, 41 points) at the Stadio Comunale Via del Mare. The Serie A match on May 24, 2026, 8:45 PM, is crucial for staying in the league.
Form
Lecce shows a form of DDWLW. In their last five matches, they recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss. The trend is positive, as Lecce is currently scoring more frequently (avg. 1.5 goals) than their season average (avg. 0.9 goals).
Genoa's form in the last five games is WLDDL with one win, two draws, and two losses. The form trend is negative, as Genoa's goal production is stagnant (avg. 1.0 goals) compared to their season average (avg. 1.4 goals).
Statistics
Lecce scored an average of 0.73 goals per game this season and conceded 1.35 goals. At home, they scored 0.75 goals and conceded 1.5 goals. They kept nine clean sheets, and both teams scored in 14 matches. Genoa's season average is 1.11 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded. Away from home, they scored 1.12 goals and conceded 1.41 goals. Genoa also recorded nine clean sheets, and both teams scored in 20 matches. The Comunale Via del Mare stadium has seen an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last five matches. Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In five head-to-head matches, Lecce secured one win, Genoa two, with two draws. Lecce scored three goals, Genoa four. The last encounter on August 23, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw. Genoa has been the more dominant side in recent meetings.
Key Players
For Lecce, Walid Cheddira (3 goals, 1 assist, avg. 7.21 rating in last 5 games), Lameck Banda (4 goals, 4 assists, avg. 6.90 rating in last 5 games), and Lassana Coulibaly (3 goals, 1 assist, avg. 6.78 rating in last 5 games) are key. Walid Cheddira shows a rising form with 0.85 goals per 90 minutes in the last five games. Lameck Banda and Lassana Coulibaly have stable form. For Genoa, Lorenzo Colombo (7 goals, 1 assist, avg. 6.68 rating in last 5 games), AarĂłn MartĂn (1 goal, 5 assists, avg. 6.79 rating in 4 of last 5 games), and Alessandro Marcandalli (0 goals, 2 assists, avg. 6.74 rating in last 5 games) stand out. Lorenzo Colombo scored 1 goal in the last five games, while AarĂłn MartĂn has stable form.
Goalkeepers
Lecce relies on Wladimiro Falcone, who made 37 appearances this season. Genoa is represented by Nicola Leali, who played 21 times. Both teams have recorded nine clean sheets this season.
Influences
Lecce averages 0.75 goals scored at home and concedes 1.5 goals. The Stadio Comunale Via del Mare is known for an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last five matches. The pitch surface is grass. No specific weather data is available.