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Lecce – Genoa1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Lecce
1.00
Total xG
2.34
Genoa
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lecce | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.35 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 0.8 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| M. Berisha not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Vitinha not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Leo Østigård not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jeff Ekhator not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 50% of goal output missing (only 69% available) |
Key factors
- Mathematical Analysis: Genoa is the favorite with a 43% win probability
- Lecce's Rising Form: Lecce is currently scoring more frequently (avg. 1.5 goals) than their season average (avg. 0.9 goals)
- Genoa's Tactical Offense: In the last 5 games, Genoa averaged only 2.6 shots on target
Risks
- Genoa with only 69% of goal threat available, without Vitinha (5G/1A), Leo Østigård (5G/1A), Jeff Ekhator (3G/0A)
- Lecce scores an average of only 0.75 home goals per game (homeGoalsScoredAvg)
All probabilities
Result
Lecce26%
Draw31%
Genoa43%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Double chance
Lecce or draw57%
Genoa or draw74%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
0:1
11%
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Genoa with Tommaso Baldanzi: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Lecce with Gaby Jean: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.2 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
- Genoa: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Lecce: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Lecce 4-2-3-1 · Genoa 3-5-1-1
Lecce
- 30 W. Falcone
- 17 D. Melo Veiga
- 5 J. Siebert
- 44 T. Coelho Oliveira
- 25 A. Gallo
- 20 Y. Ramadani
- 79 O. Ngom
- 50 S. Pierotti
- 29 L. Coulibaly
- 19 L. Banda
- 99 W. Cheddira
Genoa
- 1 N. Leali
- 27 A. Marcandalli
- 34 S. Otoa
- 13 N. Zätterström
- 20 S. Sabelli
- 32 M. Frendrup
- 4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
- 73 P. Masini
- 3 A. Martín Caricol
- 77 M. Ellertsson
- 29 L. Colombo
Substitutes
- 9 N. Štulić
- 18 G. Jean
- 36 F. Marchwiński
- 3 C. Ndaba
- 13 M. Pérez Sepúlveda
- 32 J. Samooja
- 22 F. Camarda
- 1 C. Früchtl
- 4 K. Gaspar
- 6 Á. Sala Herrero
- 14 T. Helgason
- 11 K. Jocelyn N’dri
- 28 O. Gorter
- 16 O. Gandelman
- 8 S. Fofana
- 16 J. Bijlow
- 39 D. Sommariva
- 22 J. Vásquez Ibarra
- 15 B. Norton-Cuffy
- 74 M. Doucoure
- 75 G. Lafont
- 80 J. Corci
- 99 W. Ouedraogo
- 71 F. Carbone
- 19 M. Romano
- 97 E. Spicuglia
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