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Fiorentina – Atalanta1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Fiorentina
1.48
Total xG
2.80
Atalanta
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fiorentina | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | +0.46 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Nicolò Fagioli on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Manor Solomon on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Cher Ndour on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Nikola Krstović on the bench (10 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Charles De Ketelaere on the bench (3 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Nicola Zalewski on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Davide Zappacosta on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Éderson on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 42% of goal output missing (only 60% available) |
Key factors
- Fiorentina's tactics: Averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Atalanta's stability: Consistently scores (~1.5 goals per game) according to Advanced Stats
- Atalanta's season performance: With 58 points in 7th place, significantly ahead of Fiorentina
Risks
- Limited goal threat for Atalanta: Only 60% of usual starting XI goal threat available, without Nikola Krstović (10G/5A), Charles De Ketelaere (3G/5A), Nicola Zalewski (2G/4A), Davide Zappacosta (3G/3A), Éderson (2G/1A)
- Fiorentina's goal production is stagnant: According to Advanced Stats, the trend is negative and goal production is at 1.0 compared to the season average of 1.4
All probabilities
Result
Fiorentina39%
Draw28%
Atalanta32%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Double chance
Fiorentina or draw68%
Atalanta or draw61%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fiorentina with Roberto Piccoli: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Atalanta with Raoul Bellanova: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Atalanta: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Fiorentina 4-3-3 · Atalanta 3-4-2-1
Fiorentina
- 53 O. Christensen
- 2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
- 15 P. Comuzzo
- 3 D. Rugani
- 21 R. Gosens
- 80 G. Fabbian
- 8 R. Mandragora
- 4 M. Brescianini
- 17 J. Harrison
- 91 R. Piccoli
- 10 A. Gudmundsson
Atalanta
- 57 M. Sportiello
- 42 G. Scalvini
- 4 I. Hien
- 69 H. Ahanor
- 16 R. Bellanova
- 15 M. de Roon
- 8 M. Pašalić
- 6 Y. Musah
- 10 L. Samardžić
- 7 K. Sulemana
- 18 G. Raspadori
Substitutes
- 1 L. Lezzerini
- 27 C. Ndour
- 29 N. Fortini
- 61 R. Braschi
- 19 M. Solomon
- 5 M. Pongracic
- 43 D. de Gea Quintana
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 62 L. Balbo Vieira
- 69 G. Puzzoli
- 23 S. Kolašinac
- 29 M. Carnesecchi
- 59 N. Zalewski
- 13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
- 90 N. Krstović
- 19 B. Djimsiti
- 5 M. Bakker
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
- 31 F. Rossi
- 77 D. Zappacosta
- 9 G. Scamacca
- 40 R. Obrić
- 45 D. Vavassori
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