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Serie A

Fiorentina - Atalanta

05/22/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Fiorentina
1.5
Total xG
2.8
Atalanta
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FIOATA

Fiorentina

Attack strength (1.2x league average)
+0.46
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.24
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap)
-0.13
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Nicolò Fagioli on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Manor Solomon on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Cher Ndour on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)

Atalanta

Attack strength (1.22x league average)
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.10
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap)
+0.05
Nikola Krstović on the bench (10 goals, 5 assists)
Charles De Ketelaere on the bench (3 goals, 5 assists)
Nicola Zalewski on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Davide Zappacosta on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Éderson on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
42% of goal output missing (only 60% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fiorentina with Roberto Piccoli: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Atalanta with Raoul Bellanova: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Atalanta: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

28%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Fiorentina's tactics: Averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Atalanta's stability: Consistently scores (~1.5 goals per game) according to Advanced Stats
  • Atalanta's season performance: With 58 points in 7th place, significantly ahead of Fiorentina
Risk Factors
  • Limited goal threat for Atalanta: Only 60% of usual starting XI goal threat available, without Nikola Krstović (10G/5A), Charles De Ketelaere (3G/5A), Nicola Zalewski (2G/4A), Davide Zappacosta (3G/3A), Éderson (2G/1A)
  • Fiorentina's goal production is stagnant: According to Advanced Stats, the trend is negative and goal production is at 1.0 compared to the season average of 1.4
Overview

Fiorentina (15th place, 41 points) host Atalanta (7th place, 58 points) at the Stadio Artemio Franchi. The Serie A match takes place on May 22, 2026, 8:45 PM. Fiorentina aims to improve their league position, while Atalanta fights for a European competition spot.

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Fiorentina shows mixed form in their last five games with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss (Form: DDLDW)

Their last match was a 2-0 away win against Juventus

Atalanta recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches (Form: DLDWL)

Their last game ended in a 0-1 home loss against Bologna

Statistics

Fiorentina averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per game this season

At home, Fiorentina scores an average of 1.11 goals and concedes 1.11 goals per match

Atalanta shows a stronger offense with an average of 1.35 goals and a more solid defense with 0.95 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Atalanta scores an average of 1.32 goals and concedes 1.05 goals

This season, Fiorentina saw both teams score in 21 games and over 2.5 goals in 19 games

Atalanta had both teams score in 19 matches, while 14 games featured more than 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters so far, Fiorentina won 2 times, Atalanta won 3 times

There have been 0 draws between the two teams

Fiorentina scored a total of 7 goals, while Atalanta managed 11 goals

Atalanta is considered the dominant team in recent head-to-head matches

The last encounter on November 30, 2025, ended in a 2-0 home win for Atalanta against Fiorentina

Key Players

For Fiorentina, key players include:

Rolando Mandragora (Midfielder) with 7 goals and 3 assists this season, recently 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 games

Albert Gudmundsson (Attacker) with 5 goals and 4 assists this season

Robin Gosens (Defender) with 3 goals and 1 assist this season

For Atalanta, crucial players are:

Giorgio Scalvini (Defender) with 3 goals and 1 assist this season, recently 1 assist in 5 games

Giacomo Raspadori (Attacker) with 3 goals and 1 assist this season, recently 1 goal in 5 games

Mario Pašalić (Midfielder) with 3 goals and 5 assists this season, recently 1 goal in 5 games

Goalkeepers

Oliver Christensen is in goal for Fiorentina, the team kept 10 clean sheets this season

Marco Sportiello is the goalkeeper for Atalanta, the team recorded 13 clean sheets this season

Influences

Fiorentina averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded at home

The Stadio Artemio Franchi averages 1.2 goals per game

In the last 5 matches at the stadium, both teams scored in 2 instances (40%) and there was over 2.5 goals in 1 instance (20%)

The mathematical analysis sees Fiorentina as winner with a probability of 39%

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