Match report →
Cremonese – Como1 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Cremonese
0.87
Total xG
1.88
Como
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cremonese | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.43 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (1.5 vs 2 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 5, 13 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 1 season average) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 18, 13 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Federico Baschirotto not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Nico Paz on the bench (12 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Álex Valle not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- League position: Como is in 5th place, while Cremonese is fighting relegation in 18th place
- Defensive strength: Como has one of the league's best defenses, conceding an average of 0.76 goals per game
- Offensive comparison: Como scores an average of 1.65 goals per game, Cremonese only 0.84 goals
Risks
All probabilities
Result
Cremonese29%
Draw35%
Como36%
Goals
Over 1.558%
Under 1.542%
Over 2.529%
Under 2.571%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Double chance
Cremonese or draw64%
Como or draw71%
No draw65%
Both teams score
Yes39%
No61%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
1:1
15%
0:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:2
8%
1:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cremonese with Youssef Maleh: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Como with Ignace Van der Brempt: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Como: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- Cremonese: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Como: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Cremonese 3-5-2 · Como 4-2-3-1
Cremonese
- 1 E. Audero Mulyadi
- 24 F. Terracciano
- 15 M. Bianchetti
- 5 S. Luperto
- 7 A. Zerbin
- 2 M. Thorsby
- 33 A. Grassi
- 29 Y. Maleh
- 3 G. Pezzella
- 90 F. Bonazzoli
- 10 J. Vardy
Como
- 1 J. Butez
- 28 I. Smolčić
- 14 J. Naveros
- 2 M. Kempf
- 18 A. Moreno Pérez
- 33 L. Da Cunha
- 23 M. Perrone
- 38 A. Diao Diaoune
- 20 M. Baturina
- 17 J. Rodríguez Caraballo
- 11 A. Douvikas
Substitutes
- 9 M. Đurić
- 22 R. Floriani
- 16 M. Silvestri
- 77 D. Okereke
- 18 M. Collocolo
- 69 L. Nava
- 4 T. Barbieri
- 55 F. Folino
- 23 F. Ceccherini
- 27 J. Vandeputte
- 21 S. Lottici Tessadri
- 26 Tommaso Vigilati
- 15 A. Lahdo
- 31 M. Vojvoda
- 19 N. Kühn
- 7 Á. Morata Martín
- 34 D. Santos Silva
- 6 M. Caqueret
- 21 N. Törnqvist
- 5 E. Goldaniga
- 8 S. Roberto Carnicer
- 22 M. Vigorito
- 10 N. Paz Martínez
- 77 I. Brempt
- 58 S. Pisati
- 49 R. Cassano
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