Match report →
Napoli – Udinese1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Napoli
1.59
Total xG
2.69
Udinese
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Napoli | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.20 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Kevin De Bruyne on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Sam Beukema on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Nicolò Zaniolo not in squad (5 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Adam Buksa on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Hassane Kamara not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis favors Napoli with a 47% home win probability
- Napoli shows a solid defensive performance at home, conceding an average of 0.86 goals per home game
- Napoli dominated in their last 5 games with an average of 59% possession, while recording an average of 4.2 shots on target
Risks
- Napoli lost 2 of their last 5 home games, indicating some inconsistency
- Udinese won the last head-to-head encounter against Napoli with a score of 0:1
All probabilities
Result
Napoli47%
Draw28%
Udinese25%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Double chance
Napoli or draw75%
Udinese or draw53%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Napoli with Eljif Elmas: 6.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Udinese: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Udinese with Jesper Karlström: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 2.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Napoli 3-4-3 · Udinese 3-4-2-1
Napoli
- 1 A. Meret
- 22 G. Di Lorenzo
- 13 A. Rrahmani
- 17 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 21 M. Politano
- 68 S. Lobotka
- 8 S. McTominay
- 3 M. Gutiérrez Ortega
- 20 E. Elmas
- 19 R. Højlund
- 27 A. de Almeida Santos
Udinese
- 40 M. Okoye
- 31 T. Kristensen
- 27 C. Kabasele
- 28 O. Solet Bomawoko
- 19 K. Ehizibue
- 8 J. Karlström
- 38 L. Miller
- 33 J. Zemura
- 24 J. Piotrowski
- 14 A. Atta
- 9 K. Davis
Substitutes
- 32 V. Milinković Savić
- 14 N. Contini Baranovsky
- 31 S. Beukema
- 5 J. Nunes Jesus
- 6 B. Gilmour
- 26 A. Vergara
- 99 A. Zambo Anguissa
- 30 P. Mazzocchi
- 11 K. De Bruyne
- 23 G. Santana do Nascimento
- 22 B. Mlacic
- 7 I. Gueye
- 18 A. Buksa
- 1 A. Nunziante
- 15 V. Bayo
- 29 A. Camara
- 6 O. Zarraga Egaña
- 90 R. Sava
- 93 D. Padelli
- 13 N. Bertola
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