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Serie A

Napoli - Udinese

05/24/2026, 04:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Napoli
1.6
Total xG
2.7
Udinese
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
NAPUDI

Napoli

Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap)
+0.06
Kevin De Bruyne  on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Sam Beukema on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

Udinese

Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.04
Nicolò Zaniolo not in squad (5 goals, 6 assists)
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Adam Buksa on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Hassane Kamara not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Napoli with Eljif Elmas: 6.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Udinese: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Udinese with Jesper Karlström: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 2.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

28%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis favors Napoli with a 47% home win probability
  • Napoli shows a solid defensive performance at home, conceding an average of 0.86 goals per home game
  • Napoli dominated in their last 5 games with an average of 59% possession, while recording an average of 4.2 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Napoli lost 2 of their last 5 home games, indicating some inconsistency
  • Udinese won the last head-to-head encounter against Napoli with a score of 0:1
Overview

Napoli (2nd place, 73 points) hosts Udinese (10th place, 50 points) at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. The Serie A match takes place on May 24, 2026, 6:00 PM. Napoli is contending for top positions in the league, while Udinese is in the midfield of the table. Mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a probability of 47%

Form

Napoli's form in the last five games has been LWDLW, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last match was a 3-0 win against Pisa. Udinese's form in the last five games has been LDWWL, also with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last result was a 0-1 loss against Cremonese. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Napoli averages 1.54 goals scored per game and concedes 0.97 goals per game over the season. They kept 14 clean sheets. Udinese averages 1.22 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded per game with 11 clean sheets. In home games, Napoli averages 1.52 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded. Udinese averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.18 goals conceded in away games. The venue has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, Napoli recorded 2 wins, Udinese 1 win, and there were 2 draws. Napoli scored 9 goals and Udinese 5 goals. The last encounter on December 14, 2025, ended in a 0-1 away win for Udinese. Historically, Napoli has been dominant in recent matchups

Key Players

For Napoli, Rasmus Højland is an important offensive player with 11 goals and 5 assists this season. Scott McTominay contributed 10 goals and 3 assists and shows stable form. Alisson Santos added 4 goals. On Udinese's side, Keinan Davis is the top attacker with 10 goals and 4 assists. Arthur Atta scored 5 goals and 3 assists. Oumar Solet, a defender, recently showed a rising form

Goalkeepers

Napoli goalkeeper Alex Meret has an average rating of 6.7 in 10 season appearances. The Napoli team recorded 14 clean sheets. Udinese goalkeeper Maduka Okoye made 29 season appearances with an average rating of 6.79. Udinese achieved 11 clean sheets this season

Influences

Napoli shows a solid performance at home with an average of 1.52 goals scored and only 0.86 goals conceded per game. The last 5 matches at the venue recorded an average of 3.0 goals per game. The grass surface is a factor

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