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Serie A

Lazio - Pisa

05/23/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Lazio
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Pisa
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
LAZPIS

Lazio

Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 20, 11 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
Kenneth Taylor not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)

Pisa

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.91
Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.22
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 9, 11 places gap)
-0.11
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (0.4 vs 0.7 season average)
-0.10
Antonio Caracciolo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lazio: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Lazio: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Lazio with Adam Marusic: 0.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Lazio: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Pisa: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

31%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Pisa's dire form (5 consecutive losses) and very weak defense (1.86 goals conceded per game)
  • The mathematical model predicts a 46% win probability for Lazio with 1.35 expected goals
  • Lazio's home advantage against the league's weakest team, despite their own recent dip in form
Risk Factors
  • Lazio's recent negative form trend in goal production (currently 1.0 compared to season average of 1.2)
  • Pisa's extremely low season goal average of 0.68 goals per game indicates a generally low-scoring affair
  • The only head-to-head encounter between these two teams resulted in a goalless 0:0 draw
Overview

Lazio (9th place, 51 points) host Pisa (20th place, 18 points) at the Stadio Olimpico

Serie A match on May 23, 2026, 8:45 PM

Lazio aims to solidify its position in the table, while Pisa is struggling against relegation and is last

Form

Lazio is in a difficult phase of form, with a form string of DWLLL

The last five matches include 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Most recently, they suffered three consecutive losses

Pisa shows extremely poor form, recording five consecutive losses

The form string is LLLLL with 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses

Statistics

Lazio scores an average of 1.05 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.05 goals

The team kept 15 clean sheets and both teams scored in 10 matches

Pisa has one of the weakest offenses in the league with an average of 0.68 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.86 goals

Pisa kept 5 clean sheets, while both teams scored in 15 matches

At the Stadio Olimpico, an average of 3.4 goals per game are scored

The rate for both teams to score is 20%

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of the matches

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Lazio and Pisa so far

This game ended in a 0:0 draw on October 30, 2025

The historical record is even

Key Players

For Lazio, Pedro (4 goals, 2 assists) and Tijjani Noslin (4 goals, 1 assist) are key offensive players

Matteo Cancellieri also contributes 4 goals and 2 assists

For Pisa, Stefano Moreo is the top scorer with 6 goals and 1 assist

Mehdi LĆ©ris has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists

Simone Canestrelli scored 1 goal this season

Not nominated: Kenneth Taylor (3G/2A) for Lazio

Not nominated: Antonio Caracciolo (2G/0A) for Pisa

Goalkeepers

Alessio Furlanetto is in goal for Lazio

Lazio recorded 15 clean sheets this season

Adrian Semper is Pisa's goalkeeper

Pisa achieved 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Lazio has scored 25 goals and conceded 24 goals in home games

Pisa concedes an average of 1.79 goals per away game

The Stadio Olimpico averages 3.4 goals per game

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