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Lazio – Pisa2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Lazio
1.35
Total xG
2.23
Pisa
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lazio | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.91 | |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.22 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 9, 11 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 0.7 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 20, 11 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Kenneth Taylor not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Antonio Caracciolo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 90% available) |
Key factors
- Pisa's dire form (5 consecutive losses) and very weak defense (1.86 goals conceded per game)
- The mathematical model predicts a 46% win probability for Lazio with 1.35 expected goals
- Lazio's home advantage against the league's weakest team, despite their own recent dip in form
Risks
- Lazio's recent negative form trend in goal production (currently 1.0 compared to season average of 1.2)
- Pisa's extremely low season goal average of 0.68 goals per game indicates a generally low-scoring affair
- The only head-to-head encounter between these two teams resulted in a goalless 0:0 draw
All probabilities
Result
Lazio46%
Draw31%
Pisa23%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Double chance
Lazio or draw77%
Pisa or draw54%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lazio: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- Lazio: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Lazio with Adam Marusic: 0.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Lazio: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Pisa: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Lazio 4-3-3 · Pisa 3-5-2
Lazio
- 55 A. Furlanetto
- 77 A. Marušić
- 34 M. Fuentes
- 13 A. Romagnoli
- 3 L. Pellegrini
- 7 F. Dele-Bashiru
- 26 T. Bašić
- 21 R. Belahyane
- 22 M. Cancellieri
- 14 T. Noslin
- 9 P. Rodríguez Ledesma
Pisa
- 1 A. Šemper
- 33 A. Calabresi
- 5 S. Canestrelli
- 2 R. Bozhinov
- 7 M. Marcel Léris
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 14 E. Akinsanmiro
- 21 ?. Vural
- 3 S. Angori
- 32 S. Moreo
- 81 F. Stojilkovic
Substitutes
- 27 D. Maldini
- 20 P. Ratkov
- 23 E. Hysaj
- 25 O. Nielsen
- 29 M. Lazzari
- 18 G. Isaksen
- 4 P. Gabarrón Gil
- 19 B. Dia
- 2 S. Gigot
- 71 V. Farcomeni
- 28 A. Przyborek
- 99 G. Giacomone
- 72 N. Pannozzo
- 19 S. Iling
- 17 R. Durosinmi
- 15 I. Touré
- 12 N. Andrade
- 8 M. Höjholt
- 23 C. Stengs
- 9 H. Meister
- 39 R. Albiol Tortajada
- 22 S. Scuffet
- 11 J. Cuadrado Bello
- 36 G. Piccinini
- 42 B. Bettazzi
- 35 F. Loyola
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