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Serie A

Torino - Juventus

05/24/2026, 07:45 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Torino
1.3
Total xG
2.9
Juventus
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
TORJUV

Torino

Attack strength (1.27x league average)
+0.22
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Valentino Lazaro on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Juventus

Attack strength (1.23x league average)
+0.52
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.29
Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.23
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Kenan Yıldız on the bench (10 goals, 6 assists)
Jonathan David on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists)
Bremer not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 82% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juventus: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Juventus with Jonathan David: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Torino: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Torino with Matteo Prati: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Torino: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

27%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical prediction: Juventus is favored with a 42% win probability, with 1.60 expected goals
  • Tactical differences: Juventus has been possession-dominant in their last 5 games with an average of 6.2 shots on target, while Torino plays counter-attacking football with only 2.2 shots on target
  • Historical superiority: Juventus has dominated recent head-to-head encounters with 2 wins and 3 draws from 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Squad absences for Juventus: With Kenan Yıldız (10G/6A), Jonathan David (6G/4A), and Bremer (4G/3A) missing, three key players are absent, reducing the usual starting eleven strength to 83%
  • Torino's offensive weakness: Torino recorded an average of only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Torino (13th place, 44 points) host Juventus (6th place, 68 points) at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Serie A match on May 24, 2026, 8:45 PM

Juventus are fighting for a European qualification spot

Form

Torino achieved 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches (DDLWL)

Their last game was a 1-2 away loss against Cagliari

Juventus recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches (WDDWL)

Juventus recently suffered a 0-2 home defeat against Fiorentina

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Torino averages 1.14 home goals per game and concedes 1.23 goals

Torino kept 5 clean sheets in home matches

Juventus averages 1.60 away goals and concedes 1.07 goals

Juventus recorded 8 clean sheets in away matches

The Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino has seen an average of 3.4 total goals in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 of these matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Torino recorded 0 wins, Juventus 2 wins, and there were 3 draws

Torino scored 1 goal, while Juventus scored 5 goals

The last encounter on November 8, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw

Juventus has been the more dominant team in recent meetings

Key Players

Giovanni Simeone is a key player for Torino with 11 season goals and an average rating of 6.87

Nikola Vlašić contributed 8 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 7.0

Duván Zapata scored 3 season goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.68, plus 1 goal in the last 5 games

For Juventus, Weston McKennie is important with 5 goals and 5 assists and an average rating of 7.04

Dušan Vlahović proved dangerous with 5 season goals and 1 assist (rating 6.84), scoring 2 goals in the last 5 games

Francisco Conceição contributed 3 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 7.10

Goalkeepers

Torino relies on goalkeeper Alberto Paleari, who achieved an average rating of 6.9 in 28 season appearances

Torino recorded 5 clean sheets in home matches

For Juventus, Mattia Perin is available, with an average rating of 6.6 in 8 season appearances

Juventus kept 8 clean sheets in away matches

Influences

The Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino has seen an average of 3.4 total goals in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 of these matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches

Torino averages 1.14 home goals and concedes 1.23 goals, suggesting a moderate home advantage

Juventus appears offensively stronger away from home with an average of 1.60 goals scored and only 1.07 goals conceded

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