Match report →
Torino – Juventus2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Torino
1.33
Total xG
2.93
Juventus
1.60
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Torino | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.52 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.29 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | +0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Valentino Lazaro on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kenan Yıldız on the bench (10 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Jonathan David on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Bremer not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 82% available) |
Key factors
- Mathematical prediction: Juventus is favored with a 42% win probability, with 1.60 expected goals
- Tactical differences: Juventus has been possession-dominant in their last 5 games with an average of 6.2 shots on target, while Torino plays counter-attacking football with only 2.2 shots on target
- Historical superiority: Juventus has dominated recent head-to-head encounters with 2 wins and 3 draws from 5 games
Risks
- Squad absences for Juventus: With Kenan Yıldız (10G/6A), Jonathan David (6G/4A), and Bremer (4G/3A) missing, three key players are absent, reducing the usual starting eleven strength to 83%
- Torino's offensive weakness: Torino recorded an average of only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Torino30%
Draw27%
Juventus42%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
Torino or draw58%
Juventus or draw70%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juventus: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Juventus with Jonathan David: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Torino: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Torino with Matteo Prati: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Torino: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Torino 3-4-1-2 · Juventus 3-4-2-1
Torino
- 1 A. Paleari
- 23 S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
- 44 A. Ismajli
- 77 E. Ebosse
- 16 M. Pedersen
- 6 E. İlkhan
- 66 G. Gineitis
- 33 Rafael Burguera
- 10 N. Vlašić
- 18 G. Simeone
- 91 D. Zapata Banguera
Juventus
- 1 M. Perin
- 15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 4 F. Gatti
- 6 L. Kelly
- 22 W. McKennie
- 5 M. Locatelli
- 19 K. Thuram-Ulien
- 27 A. Cambiaso
- 7 F. Conceição
- 13 J. Boga
- 9 D. Vlahović
Substitutes
- 17 S. Kulenovic
- 25 N. Nkounkou
- 61 A. Tameze
- 81 F. Israel Wibmer
- 92 A. Njie
- 20 V. Lazaro
- 19 C. Adams
- 8 I. Ilić
- 34 C. Biraghi
- 22 C. Casadei
- 4 M. Prati
- 99 L. Siviero
- 93 M. Pellini
- 84 T. Gabellini
- 10 K. Yildiz
- 30 J. David
- 18 F. Kostić
- 32 J. Cabal Murillo
- 17 V. Adžić
- 11 E. Zhegrova
- 20 L. Openda
- 21 F. Miretti
- 8 T. Koopmeiners
- 23 C. Pinsoglio
- 14 A. Milik
- 16 M. Di Gregorio
- 2 E. Holm
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