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Parma – Sassuolo1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Parma
1.11
Total xG
2.24
Sassuolo
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Parma | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.27 | |
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −0.20 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Gabriel Strefezza on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Adrián Bernabé not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Enrico Delprato on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Cristian Volpato not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Tarik Muharemović on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Nemanja Matic on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| M'Bala Nzola on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Offensive Form: Sassuolo is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) than Parma (0.8 goals)
- Squad Impact: Parma is missing 17% of their usual goal threat due to unlisted players like Gabriel Strefezza (2G/2A) and Adrián Bernabé (3G/1A)
- Tactical Approach: Parma averaged only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Risks
- Home Weakness: Parma scores an average of only 0.71 goals per home game
- Low Chances: Parma averaged only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Prediction Uncertainty: The mathematical analysis shows a low probability for both teams to score (47%) and over 2.5 goals (39%)
All probabilities
Result
Parma33%
Draw32%
Sassuolo35%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Double chance
Parma or draw65%
Sassuolo or draw67%
No draw68%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
10%
1:0
10%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sassuolo: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Parma: 81% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Sassuolo with Woyo Coulibaly: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Parma: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Parma: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Parma 3-5-2 · Sassuolo 4-3-3
Parma
- 40 E. Corvi
- 39 A. Circati
- 37 M. Troilo
- 5 L. Valenti
- 27 S. Britschgi
- 24 C. Ordoñez
- 41 H. Nicolussi Caviglia
- 16 M. Keita
- 14 E. Valeri
- 9 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
- 76 D. Mikołajewski
Sassuolo
- 13 S. Turati
- 25 W. Coulibaly
- 31 T. Macchioni
- 21 J. Idzes
- 23 U. Garcia Lopes
- 42 K. Thorstvedt
- 35 L. Lipani
- 90 I. Koné
- 10 D. Berardi
- 99 A. Pinamonti
- 45 A. Lauriente
Substitutes
- 31 Z. Suzuki
- 3 N. Ndiaye
- 22 O. Jensen
- 65 E. Plicco
- 11 P. Almqvist
- 8 N. Estévez
- 15 E. Del Prato
- 29 F. Carboni
- 75 A. Cardinali
- 77 E. Tigani
- 63 M. Mena Martínez
- 60 A. Mazzocchi
- 8 M. N'Zola
- 20 A. Fadera
- 18 N. Matić
- 49 A. Murić
- 12 G. Satalino
- 24 L. Moro
- 3 J. Doig
- 16 G. Zacchi
- 44 E. Iannoni
- 7 C. Volpato
- 80 T. Muharemovic
- 66 P. de Jesus Gomes
- 33 C. Frangella
- 36 G. Vezzosi
- 37 J. B. Nana
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