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Serie A

Parma - Sassuolo

05/24/2026, 01:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Parma
1.1
Total xG
2.2
Sassuolo
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

10%

1:0

10%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
PARSAS

Parma

Attack weakness (0.61x league average)
-0.20
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.04
Gabriel Strefezza on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Adrián Bernabé not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Enrico Delprato on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

Sassuolo

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.27
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.04
Cristian Volpato not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Tarik Muharemović on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Nemanja Matic on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
M'Bala Nzola on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sassuolo: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Parma: 81% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Sassuolo with Woyo Coulibaly: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Parma: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Parma: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

32%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Offensive Form: Sassuolo is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) than Parma (0.8 goals)
  • Squad Impact: Parma is missing 17% of their usual goal threat due to unlisted players like Gabriel Strefezza (2G/2A) and Adrián Bernabé (3G/1A)
  • Tactical Approach: Parma averaged only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Home Weakness: Parma scores an average of only 0.71 goals per home game
  • Low Chances: Parma averaged only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Prediction Uncertainty: The mathematical analysis shows a low probability for both teams to score (47%) and over 2.5 goals (39%)
Overview

Parma (13th place, 42 points) host Sassuolo (11th place, 49 points) at the Stadio Ennio Tardini

Serie A match on May 24, 2026, 3:00 PM

Sassuolo holds a seven-point lead in the league table

The mathematical analysis indicates a very balanced match with a slight edge for Sassuolo (35% win probability compared to 33% for Parma)

Form

Parma's league form is WWLLL (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses)

Parma has suffered three consecutive losses recently

Sassuolo's league form is WDWLL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Sassuolo has also lost their last two matches

According to advanced statistics, Parma's current goal production (0.8) is lower than their season average (0.9)

Sassuolo is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.3)

Statistics

Parma averages 0.73 goals scored per game and concedes 1.24 goals per game this season

At home, they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded per home game

Parma has kept 12 clean sheets this season

Sassuolo averages 1.24 goals scored per game and concedes 1.32 goals per game this season

Away from home, they average 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded per away game

Sassuolo has managed 8 clean sheets this season

At the Stadio Ennio Tardini, an average of 2.4 goals per game have been scored

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Parma and Sassuolo

This match ended in a 1-1 draw on January 3, 2026

Both teams scored one goal each in their last encounter

The historical record between the teams is therefore even

Key Players

For Parma, Mateo Pellegrino is the top scorer with 8 season goals and 1 assist

Mandela Keita contributed 1 goal and 1 assist this season, scoring 1 goal in the last 5 games

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia provided 3 assists this season, with 1 in the last 5 games

For Sassuolo, Armand Laurienté is a key attacking player with 7 goals and 9 assists this season, recently with 2 goals and 2 assists

Andrea Pinamonti scored 9 season goals and 3 assists, including 1 goal in the last 5 games

Kristian Thorstvedt has contributed 4 goals and 4 assists this season, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Edoardo Corvi is in goal for Parma

Parma has kept 12 clean sheets this season

Stefano Turati is the goalkeeper for Sassuolo

Sassuolo has managed to keep 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

Parma averages 0.71 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded at home

Sassuolo averages 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded away from home

An average of 2.4 total goals per game were scored at the Stadio Ennio Tardini

Both teams scored in 60% of matches at this stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 20%

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