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Bologna – Inter3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Bologna
1.25
Total xG
2.42
Inter
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bologna | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| Riccardo Orsolini not in squad (10 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Marcus Thuram not in squad (13 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Alessandro Bastoni on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Manuel Akanji not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Inter Milan's dominant season performance as league leaders with 86 points and a strong offense (2.32 goals/game)
- Inter's strong form with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games compared to Bologna's mixed form (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
- Inter's tactical superiority with an average of 4.8 shots on target compared to Bologna's 3.0 shots in the last 5 games
Risks
- Bologna's average of 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Inter's recent dip in goal production (2.0 goals/game) compared to their season average (2.3 goals/game)
- Bologna concedes an average of 1.54 goals at home, which is above their season average (1.16 goals/game)
All probabilities
Result
Bologna37%
Draw31%
Inter33%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Double chance
Bologna or draw67%
Inter or draw63%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
9%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Bologna with João Mário: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Inter with Luis Henrique: 5.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Inter: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Inter: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Bologna 4-3-3 · Inter 3-5-2
Bologna
- 1 Ł. Skorupski
- 29 L. De Silvestri
- 5 E. Fauske Helland
- 26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 33 J. Miranda González
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 8 R. Freuler
- 4 T. Pobega
- 10 F. Bernardeschi
- 9 S. Castro
- 11 J. Rowe
Inter
- 13 J. Martínez Riera
- 31 Y. Bisseck
- 6 S. de Vrij
- 30 C. Zopalato Neves
- 17 A. Diouf
- 23 N. Barella
- 8 P. Sučić
- 7 P. Zieliński
- 32 F. Dimarco
- 94 F. Esposito
- 10 L. Martínez
Substitutes
- 17 J. Neto Lopes
- 14 T. Heggem
- 30 B. Domínguez
- 24 T. Dallinga
- 22 C. Lykogiannis
- 25 M. Pessina
- 13 F. Ravaglia
- 20 N. Zortea
- 6 N. Moro
- 21 J. Odgaard
- 23 S. Sohm
- 14 A. Bonny
- 11 L. Tomaz de Lima
- 1 Y. Sommer
- 36 M. Darmian
- 22 H. Mkhitaryan
- 12 R. Di Gennaro
- 15 F. Acerbi
- 95 A. Bastoni
- 43 M. Cocchi
- 48 M. Mosconi
- 58 L. Topalović
- 57 I. Kaczmarski
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