Serie A
Bologna - Inter
05/23/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.4
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
9%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Bologna
Inter
The Lab
- 1Inter: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Bologna with JoĂŁo MĂĄrio: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Inter with Luis Henrique: 5.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Inter: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Inter: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
31%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Inter Milan's dominant season performance as league leaders with 86 points and a strong offense (2.32 goals/game)
- Inter's strong form with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games compared to Bologna's mixed form (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
- Inter's tactical superiority with an average of 4.8 shots on target compared to Bologna's 3.0 shots in the last 5 games
Risk Factors
- Bologna's average of 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Inter's recent dip in goal production (2.0 goals/game) compared to their season average (2.3 goals/game)
- Bologna concedes an average of 1.54 goals at home, which is above their season average (1.16 goals/game)
Overview
Bologna (8th place, 55 points) host Inter (1st place, 86 points) at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. The Serie A match takes place on May 23, 2026, 6:00 PM. Inter have already won the league and Bologna are in the mid-table.
Form
Bologna shows mixed form in their last five matches with "LLDWW", which translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last game ended in a win. Inter are unbeaten in their last five games with a form of "DWWWD", including 3 wins and 2 draws. Inter's last game was a draw. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Inter demonstrates strong season performance with an average of 2.32 goals per game and only 0.86 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they are also offensively strong with 2.4 goals per game. Bologna averages 1.24 goals scored and 1.16 goals conceded per game. At home, Bologna scores 1.23 goals but concedes 1.54 goals per home game. Inter recorded 18 clean sheets this season, Bologna 12. The Stadio Renato Dall'Ara has seen an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 1 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 1 out of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Bologna and Inter, Bologna secured 2 wins, Inter also had 2 wins, and there was 1 draw. Bologna scored 6 goals, while Inter scored 7. The last encounter on January 4, 2026, was won by Inter away with a score of 3:1.
Key Players
For Bologna, Santiago Castro (7 goals, 2 assists), Jonathan Rowe (3 goals, 2 assists, 1 goal and 1 assist in last 5 games), and Federico Bernardeschi (3 goals, 2 assists, 1 goal in last 5 games) could be decisive. For Inter, Lautaro MartĂnez (17 goals, 6 assists, 2 goals and 2 assists in last 5 games), Federico Dimarco (6 goals, 17 assists, 3 assists in last 5 games), and Nicolò Barella (3 goals, 8 assists) are key players.
Goalkeepers
Lukasz Skorupski is the goalkeeper for Bologna, while Josep MartĂnez starts for Inter. Inter recorded 18 clean sheets this season, Bologna 12.
Influences
Bologna's home record shows 16 goals scored and 20 goals conceded. The Stadio Renato Dall'Ara has a low goal-scoring rate in the last 5 matches, with an average of 2.0 goals per game, 1 out of 5 games where both teams scored, and 1 out of 5 games with over 2.5 goals.