Coppa Italia
Fiorentina - Como
01/27/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.3
1.7
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
24%
Draw
52%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
75%
Over 3.5
48%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
76%
No Draw
48%
Both Score
Yes
78%
No
22%
Key Factors
- Como's statistical superiority: Como outperforms Fiorentina in almost all season statistics, especially in goals per game (1.68 vs 1.09) and goals conceded per game (0.73 vs 1.55)
- Better current form: Como enters the match with 3 wins in 5 games and a recent 6-0 victory, while Fiorentina recently lost at home
- Offensive key players: Players like Como's Anastasios Douvikas (4 goals in 5 games) and Martin Baturina (3 goals, 3 assists) are showing outstanding recent form
Risk Factors
- Contradictory data: There is a strong contradiction between the squad impact data (0% and 16% of goalscorers available) and the predicted goals (1.59 and 1.66), making it difficult to predict offensive performance
- Potential fatigue: Both teams have had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue and affect performance
- Weak home advantage: Fiorentina's home record this season is statistically weaker than Como's away record, which could diminish the home-field advantage
Overview
Fiorentina hosts Como at the Stadio Artemio Franchi for a Coppa Italia match
The game is scheduled for January 27, 2026, at 9:00 PM
Based on season data, Como enters the match as the statistically superior team, despite Fiorentina's home advantage
Form
Fiorentina (Form: WDDWL) is coming off a 1-2 home loss to Cagliari
In their last five matches, they have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
Como (Form: WDLWW) is in better shape with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games
Como impressively won their last match 6-0 against Torino
The form trend favors the visitors
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Offensively, Como has been stronger throughout the season, averaging 1.68 goals per game compared to Fiorentina's 1.09
Defensively, Como is also significantly more stable, conceding only 0.73 goals per game, while Fiorentina concedes 1.55
Como has kept 11 clean sheets this season, whereas Fiorentina has only managed 3
Away from home, Como averages 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded, while Fiorentina scores 1.07 and concedes 1.21 at home
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head encounters, Como leads with 2 wins to Fiorentina's 1
The overall goal difference is 4-3 in favor of Como
The last meeting on September 21, 2025, ended in a 2-1 victory for Como
Como is considered the more dominant team in recent history
Key Players
For Como, Anastasios Douvikas is in outstanding form, having scored 4 goals in his last 5 appearances
Martin Baturina has been crucial with 3 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 games
Nico Paz has also been successful with 2 goals in the last 5 matches
For Fiorentina, Marco Brescianini, Giovanni Fabbian, and Roberto Piccoli have each scored once in their recent appearances
Goalkeepers
Oliver Christensen is in goal for Fiorentina, whose team has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Jean Butez is the goalkeeper for Como, a team that has already kept a clean sheet 11 times this season
Influences
The Stadio Artemio Franchi has recently been a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.0 goals in the last five matches
In 80% of these games, both teams have scored
On a grass surface, Como has a better away record (6 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses) than Fiorentina's home record (4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses)