Coppa Italia
Bologna - Lazio
02/11/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.8
1.4
1:1
14%2:1
8%1:2
8%0:0
8%1:0
7%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
29%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Heavily weakened squads: Both teams are missing key players, significantly reducing their offensive power – Bologna has only 50% and Lazio only 38% of their usual goal threat available
- Extremely balanced prediction: The mathematical models see this as virtually a 50/50 game (36% home win vs. 35% away win), suggesting an unpredictable match
- Contrasting signals: Lazio is in better recent form, while Bologna clearly dominates the historical head-to-head record
Risk Factors
- Lack of goal threat: Due to numerous absences, both teams might struggle to score, increasing the risk of a low-scoring game
- Potential fatigue: Both teams have had only a three-day break since their last match, which could lead to a slower pace and more errors
- Bologna's home defense: Bologna concedes more goals on average at home (1.56) than away, negating their home advantage
Overview
Bologna hosts Lazio at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara for a Coppa Italia match
The game will take place on February 11, 2026, at 9:00 PM
The mathematical analysis suggests an extremely balanced game, with a 36% win probability for Bologna and 35% for Lazio
Expected goals are calculated at 1.38 for Bologna and 1.37 for Lazio
Form
Bologna's form in the last five matches is DLWLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
They have lost their last two consecutive games
Lazio enters this match with a form of WLDWD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)
Lazio has remained unbeaten in their last three games
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
This season, Lazio has the better defense, conceding an average of 0.96 goals per game compared to Bologna's 1.29
Offensively, Bologna is slightly stronger with 1.33 goals per game to Lazio's 1.08
Lazio has kept 11 clean sheets this season, while Bologna has managed 6
Interestingly, Bologna concedes more goals at home (1.56 average) than away (1.13)
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Bologna has had the upper hand with 3 wins to Lazio's 1, with one match ending in a draw
The goal difference in these matches is 9-5 in favor of Bologna
The last meeting between the two teams ended in a 1-1 draw
Key Players
For Bologna, Riccardo Orsolini is the top scorer with 7 season goals, while Jonathan Rowe has shown rising form with 2 goals in his last 5 games
For Lazio, Danilo Cataldi is a key playmaker in midfield, contributing 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 matches
Striker Pedro has also demonstrated his goal-scoring threat with 2 goals in his last 3 appearances
Goalkeepers
Bologna's goalkeeper is Lukasz Skorupski; his team has kept 6 clean sheets this season
In goal for Lazio is Ivan Provedel, whose team has already achieved 11 clean sheets
Influences
The last five matches at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara have been relatively high-scoring, with an average of 2.6 goals per game
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of these games
Bologna's defensive weakness at home is notable, as they concede more goals in their own stadium than in away games