Coppa Italia
Atalanta - Juventus
02/05/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.9
1.3
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
38%
Draw
35%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
28%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
62%
No Draw
65%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Critical Offensive Weakness: Both teams are severely weakened by absences, with only 13% of Atalanta's and 8% of Juventus's usual goal production available, suggesting a low-scoring game
- Form vs. History: Juventus shows significantly better form with three wins in their last five games, while the head-to-head history is perfectly balanced (1W-3D-1L), often leading to tight matches
- Defensive Duel: Atalanta's strong home defense (0.64 goals conceded/game) meets a Juventus attack that, while potent away, is significantly blunted by key absences
Risk Factors
- Unpredictable Offense: With key attackers missing on both sides, goals could come from random moments rather than established patterns
- Data Contradiction: The predicted goals (1.56 vs 1.30) seem high given the extremely low active goal share (13% and 8%), indicating high uncertainty
- Weather Conditions: Moderate rain is forecast, which could affect ball control and lead to errors, further increasing the match's unpredictability
Overview
Atalanta hosts Juventus at Gewiss Stadium for a Coppa Italia match on February 5, 2026, at 9:00 PM
Form
Atalanta form: DLWLD - 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses
Juventus form: LWWDW - 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss
Juventus is in significantly better form than Atalanta
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Juventus has a stronger offense on season average, with 1.7 goals per game compared to Atalanta's 1.3
Defensively, Juventus is slightly more stable with 0.78 goals conceded per game, while Atalanta is at 0.87
Atalanta is very solid defensively at home, conceding an average of just 0.64 goals
Juventus is strong on the road, scoring an average of 1.78 goals per away game
Head-to-Head
The record is balanced in the last 5 encounters
Atalanta has 1 win, Juventus has 1 win, and 3 matches ended in a draw
The goal difference is 8:5 in favor of Atalanta
The last meeting finished 1:1
Key Players
For Atalanta, Gianluca Scamacca has scored 2 goals in his last 5 appearances, while Marten de Roon contributed 1 goal
Charles De Ketelaere provided 1 assist in that period
For Juventus, Jonathan David has been impressive with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games
Weston McKennie was also a goal threat with 2 goals
Goalkeepers
Marco Carnesecchi will be in goal for Atalanta; his team has kept 9 clean sheets this season
For Juventus, Mattia Perin is in goal; the team has also kept 9 clean sheets this season
Influences
Recent matches at Gewiss Stadium have averaged 2.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in only 20% of cases
Both teams have a positive record on natural grass, with Juventus's record of 7 wins in 10 games being stronger
Moderate rain is expected for the match, which could affect conditions