Coppa Italia
Inter - Como
04/21/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.3
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
13%0:0
12%2:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Inter
Como
The Lab
- 1Inter with Hakan ĂalhanoÄlu: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Como with Ălvaro Morata: 6.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Inter: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 4Inter: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Como: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
31%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Inter has a high win probability of 48% and 1.40 expected goals according to mathematical analysis
- Inter's current form (DDWWW) and improved offense (2.8 goals recently) favor the home team
- Inter dominated head-to-head matches with 4 wins in 5 encounters, including a recent 4-3 victory
Overview
Inter host Como at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in the Coppa Italia. The match takes place on April 21, 2026, at 9:00 PM. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 48% probability and 1.40 expected goals for Inter, while Como has a 21% win probability and 0.85 expected goals. A draw is predicted with a 31% probability.
Form
Inter shows strong form with a W/D/L record of DDWWW across all competitions. This equates to 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 matches. Inter recently secured three consecutive wins.
Como's form is WWDLL, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games. Como lost their last two matches.
Statistics
Inter has scored an average of 2.36 goals per game this season and conceded 0.88 goals. At home, Inter scored an average of 2.35 goals and conceded 0.75 goals. Inter kept 16 clean sheets overall. Inter's matches saw over 2.5 goals in 18 instances.
Como has scored an average of 1.73 goals per game this season and conceded 0.85 goals. Away from home, Como scored an average of 1.77 goals and conceded 1.00 goals. Como kept 15 clean sheets overall. Como's matches saw over 2.5 goals in 16 instances.
At the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, an average of 4.0 goals were scored per game. In 3 of the last 5 matches, both teams scored, and in 4 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored.
Head-to-Head
In the 5 direct encounters between the two teams, Inter secured 4 wins, while Como has yet to achieve a victory, with one draw recorded. Inter scored a total of 12 goals to Como's 3. The last head-to-head match on April 12, 2026, ended in a 4-3 victory for Inter. Inter has dominated recent meetings.
Key Players
For Inter, Marcus Thuram is a key player with 11 season goals and 5 assists, an average rating of 7.20, and rising form (5 goals, 3 assists in last 5 games). Nicolò Barella contributes with 3 goals and 8 assists and a rating of 7.21, also in rising form (2 goals, 3 assists in last 5 games). Federico Dimarco stands out with 6 goals and 15 assists, holding an average rating of 7.56.
On Como's side, Nico Paz is an important player with 12 season goals and 6 assists and a rating of 7.55 (3 goals in last 5 games). Anastasios Douvikas scored 11 season goals and 1 assist. Martin Baturina has 6 season goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 7.10.
Goalkeepers
Inter recorded 16 clean sheets this season. Como recorded 15 clean sheets. Josep MartĂnez of Inter played 95 minutes in 1 game, achieving an average rating of 6.75 in his last 5 appearances. Jean Butez of Como played 459 minutes in 5 games, recorded 1 assist, and achieved an average rating of 6.81 in his last 5 appearances.
Influences
Inter's home strength is evident with an average of 2.35 goals scored and only 0.75 goals conceded per home game. The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza has seen an average of 4.0 goals per match in the last 5 games, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals occurring in 4 out of 5 matches.