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Coppa Italia

Como - Inter

03/03/2026, 08:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Como
1.5
Total xG
3.1
Inter
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
COMINT

Como

Attack strength (1.91x league average)
+0.34
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Nico Paz not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Martin Baturina not in starting XI (4 goals, 3 assists)
Marc Oliver Kempf not in starting XI (4 goals, 0 assists)
Álex Valle not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Inter

Attack strength (1.47x league average)
+0.53
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.25
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.8 vs 2.3 season average)
-0.14
Federico Dimarco not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Lautaro Martínez not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Marcus Thuram not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Piotr Zieliński not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Luis Henrique not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Henrikh Mkhitaryan not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Petar Sučić not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Manuel Akanji not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 58% available)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.3 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

27%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Offensive clash: Inter's high-volume attack (average 7.0 shots on target) meets Como's disciplined defense (only 0.74 goals conceded per game)
  • Clear H2H record: Inter has won all of the last 3 meetings against Como, with an impressive 8-0 goal aggregate
  • Como's home strength: At home, Como is very stable defensively, conceding an average of just 0.67 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Heavy rotation for Inter: Only 59% of the usual offensive power is available, as key players like Lautaro Martínez (14 goals) and Federico Dimarco (14 assists) are missing
  • Short recovery time: Both teams have had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
Overview

Coppa Italia match between Como and Inter at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Kick-off is on March 3, 2026, 9:00 PM

The mathematical prediction is extremely balanced, with a 36% chance for a home win, 27% for a draw, and 37% for an away win

Form

Como (Form: DLDWW) is unbeaten in three matches and has won its last two games

Overall, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games

Inter (Form: WLWLW) shows inconsistent form with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five encounters

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

With an average of 2.37 goals per game, Inter has one of the strongest attacks

Como, on the other hand, boasts a solid defense, conceding only 0.74 goals per game

At home, Como is even more stable with just 0.67 goals conceded per game

An average of 3.4 goals are scored per game at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, and 80% of the last matches saw over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

Inter has clearly dominated the last 3 direct encounters

Inter won all 3 matches with an impressive goal difference of 8-0

The last meeting ended in a 4-0 victory for Inter

Key Players

For Como, Anastasios Douvikas stands out with 9 goals this season

Jesús Rodríguez is the most important playmaker with 7 assists

In midfield, Máximo Perrone pulls the strings with 2 goals and 4 assists

For Inter, Hakan Çalhanoğlu is a central figure with 8 goals and 2 assists

Nicolò Barella has already contributed 5 assists, while Pio Esposito has recorded 4 goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Como's goalkeeper Jean Butez has kept 13 clean sheets this season

For Inter, Josep Martínez is in goal, having made 2 appearances so far this season

The Inter team has kept a total of 15 clean sheets

Influences

The Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.4 goals in recent matches

Como is strong at home, conceding an average of only 0.67 goals

Inter is extremely dangerous away from home, scoring an average of 2.36 goals per game on the road

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