Coppa Italia
Lazio - Atalanta
03/04/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.8
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Lazio
Atalanta
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
27%
Draw
28%
Away Win
45%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
55%
Away or Draw
73%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Atalanta's offensive and form advantage: Atalanta is not only in better form but also scores significantly more goals (recently 1.8 goals per game) than Lazio's struggling offense (0.8 goals), according to stats.
- Tactical superiority: Atalanta is dominant in possession (56%) and averages 6.2 shots on target, whereas Lazio poses much less of a threat with only 3.0 shots on target.
- Head-to-head and prediction: Atalanta has dominated recent encounters, including a 2-0 win just recently, and is clearly favored by the prediction model with a 45% win probability.
Risk Factors
- Short recovery time: Both teams have had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue.
- Lazio's defensive strength at home: Lazio is tough to beat at home, conceding less than one goal per game on average (0.84).
Overview
Lazio hosts Atalanta at the Stadio Olimpico for a Coppa Italia match
Kick-off is on March 4, 2026, at 9:00 PM
Based on predictions, Atalanta enters the match as favorites with a 45% probability of winning
Form
Lazio is winless in their last five matches, with a form of DDLDL (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)
Atalanta shows a better record with a form of WLWWL (3 wins, 2 losses)
Both teams lost their most recent match
Statistics
Atalanta has the more dangerous attack, averaging 1.37 goals per game compared to Lazio's 0.96
Defensively, Atalanta is also slightly more stable with 0.89 goals conceded per game, versus Lazio's 1.0
Notably, Lazio has failed to score in 14 of 27 matches this season
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Atalanta has the upper hand with 2 wins to Lazio's 1, with 2 draws
The goal difference is 6-3 in favor of Atalanta
The last meeting took place recently and ended in a 2-0 victory for Atalanta
Key Players
Danilo Cataldi (3 goals, 3 assists), Gustav Isaksen (3 goals, 1 assist), and Mattia Zaccagni (3 goals) are key offensive players
For Atalanta, Nikola Krstović (7 goals, 4 assists), Mario Pašalić (3 goals, 4 assists), and Nicola Zalewski (2 goals, 3 assists) are crucial
Goalkeepers
The goalkeeper matchup features Ivan Provedel for Lazio and Marco Carnesecchi for Atalanta
Provedel has kept 12 clean sheets this season
Carnesecchi has 10 clean sheets in the current season
Influences
Lazio is very defensively solid at the Stadio Olimpico, conceding an average of just 0.84 goals per home game
Atalanta is offensively strong on the road with 1.36 goals but is also more vulnerable, conceding 1.18 goals
Recent matches at the Stadio Olimpico have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.6 goals per game