Coppa Italia
Atalanta - Lazio
04/22/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.0
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Atalanta
Lazio
The Lab
- 1Atalanta: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 2Lazio with Mario Gila: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Atalanta with Raoul Bellanova: 2.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Atalanta: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Lazio: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
27%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Atalanta with 41%
- Atalanta shows strong offensive performance at home with an average of 1.39 goals per game
- The Gewiss Stadium has a high goal-scoring rate of 3.6 goals per game on average
Risk Factors
- Lazio has several sidelined players, including starting goalkeeper I. Provedel
- Atalanta's goal production has recently stalled (1.2) compared to their season average (1.6) according to Advanced Stats
- The history shows an even record with 3 draws in 5 direct encounters
Overview
Atalanta hosts Lazio at the Gewiss Stadium
Coppa Italia match on April 22, 2026, 9:00 PM
The mathematical analysis sees Atalanta as favorites for the win with 41%
Form
Atalanta's form in the last 5 matches is LWWLD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
Their last match ended in a draw
Lazio shows better form with WWDLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
They won their last game
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Atalanta scores an average of 1.36 goals and concedes 0.88 goals per game this season
At home, they are stronger with an average of 1.39 goals scored and 0.78 goals conceded
Lazio scores an average of 1.03 goals and concedes 0.91 goals per game
Away from home, they score an average of 1.00 goal and concede 1.00 goal
The Gewiss Stadium averages 3.6 goals per game
In 3 out of 5 matches at the Gewiss Stadium, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, there was 1 win for Atalanta, 1 win for Lazio, and 3 draws
Atalanta scored 5 goals, while Lazio scored 4 goals
The last encounter on March 4, 2026, ended in a 2:2 draw
The head-to-head record is even
Key Players
For Atalanta, Nikola Krstović is a key player with 10 goals and 4 assists in 29 season appearances
Charles De Ketelaere provided 3 goals and 5 assists in 26 season appearances and shows rising form
Giorgio Scalvini contributed 3 season goals from defense
For Lazio, Matteo Cancellieri is important with 4 goals and 2 assists in 26 season appearances
Kenneth Taylor recorded 3 goals and 2 assists in 14 season appearances and his form is rising
Tijjani Noslin has scored 3 goals in 24 season appearances and also shows rising form
Not nominated are Gustav Isaksen (4 goals/1 assist) and Daniel Maldini (1 goal/1 assist)
Goalkeepers
Marco Carnesecchi of Atalanta played 33 games this season and kept 12 clean sheets
For Lazio, Edoardo Motta has been in goal for 6 season appearances
Lazio recorded a total of 15 clean sheets this season
Influences
Atalanta has a home advantage with an average of 1.39 goals scored and 0.78 goals conceded per home game
The Gewiss Stadium provides an environment with an average of 3.6 goals per game
In 3 out of 5 matches there, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals