Coppa Italia
Lazio - Inter
05/13/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
3.0
2.0
1:1
11%1:2
10%0:2
9%1:3
6%0:3
6%What influences the xG?
Lazio
Inter
The Lab
- 1Lazio: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- 2Inter: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 3Inter: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Lazio: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Inter with Henrikh Mkhitaryan: 7.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
19%
Draw
24%
Away Win
56%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
44%
Away or Draw
81%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Inter is clearly favored with an away win probability of 56%
- Inter dominates head-to-head matches with 4 wins in 5 games and a 15:2 goal difference
- Inter shows a strong offense (Avg. 2.36 goals/game) compared to Lazio's (Avg. 1.08 goals/game)
Risk Factors
- I. Provedel is injured for Lazio due to a shoulder injury
- The Stadio Olimpico shows a tendency for high-scoring matches with an average of 3.6 goals per game
Overview
Lazio host Inter at the Stadio Olimpico for a Coppa Italia match on May 13, 2026, 9:00 PM. Inter are considered clear favorites with a predicted away win probability of 56%.
Form
Lazio shows mixed form in their last 5 games with WDDWL (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Their last match was a 0-3 home defeat against Inter. Inter, on the other hand, is in top form, winning 4 of their last 5 games (WWDWW) with only one draw.
Statistics
Lazio has averaged 1.08 goals per game this season and conceded 1.03 goals. Inter's offense is significantly stronger with 2.36 goals per game and only 0.86 goals conceded. Away from home, Inter averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded. At the Stadio Olimpico, the last 5 games averaged 3.6 total goals, with over 2.5 goals scored in 80% of matches. Lazio recently played counter-oriented with 43% possession and averaged 4.2 shots on target. Inter was possession-dominant with 60% possession and averaged 5.6 shots on target.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Inter dominates with 4 wins and one draw. The goal difference is 15:2 in favor of Inter. The last encounter on May 9, 2026, saw Inter win 3-0 away against Lazio. Inter is the currently dominant team in this fixture.
Key Players
For Lazio, Tijjani Noslin recently impressed with 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games (Avg. 7.22 rating) and Toma BaÅ”iÄ with 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games (Avg. 7.06 rating). Mattia Zaccagni provided 1 assist in 3 games (Avg. 7.21 rating). Not nominated for Lazio is Matteo Cancellieri (4 goals, 2 assists this season). Inter can rely on strong performances from Lautaro MartĆnez (3 goals, 2 assists in 3 games, Avg. 8.00 rating) and Marcus Thuram (3 goals, 1 assist in 5 games, Avg. 7.23 rating). Petar SuÄiÄ contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in 5 games (Avg. 7.37 rating). Not nominated for Inter is Carlos Augusto (1 goal, 1 assist this season).
Goalkeepers
Lazio features Edoardo Motta, who made 9 appearances this season. The team recorded 15 clean sheets. For Inter, Josep MartĆnez guards the goal in 4 season games, with the team achieving 18 clean sheets.
Influences
The Stadio Olimpico is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.6 goals per match and 80% Over 2.5 goals in the last 5 encounters. Lazio scored an average of 1.09 goals at home and conceded 1.04 goals. Inter is very strong offensively away from home with 2.4 goals per game.