FA Cup
Aston Villa - Newcastle United
02/14/2026, 05:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.3
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
12%0:0
11%2:0
10%2:1
9%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
30%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Critical Squad Issues for Aston Villa: Only 49% of their usual goal production is available, with key players like Ollie Watkins missing from the squad
- Home and Away Disparity: Villa's strong home defense (0.77 goals conceded/game) meets Newcastle's very vulnerable defense on the road (1.89 goals conceded/game)
- Clear Form Advantage: Aston Villa enters with 3 wins from their last 5 games (WWLDW), while Newcastle has suffered 3 losses in the same period (LDLLW)
Risk Factors
- Weakened Aston Villa Attack: The biggest risk factor is the absence of crucial offensive players, significantly reducing their goal threat
- Potential Fatigue: Aston Villa has had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue issues
- Balanced History: The head-to-head record is perfectly even, suggesting that Newcastle has historically been able to compete on equal terms
Overview
Aston Villa hosts Newcastle United at Villa Park for an FA Cup clash
The match will take place on February 14, 2026, at 6:45 PM
Both teams are competing for a spot in the next round of the prestigious cup competition
Form
Aston Villa's form in the last five matches is WWLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The team secured 3 wins, recorded 1 draw, and suffered 1 defeat
Newcastle United enters the match with a form of LDLLW, which translates to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Based on recent results, Aston Villa comes into this game in significantly better form
Statistics
Offensively, both teams perform at a similar level, with a season average of 1.42 goals per game
Defensively, Aston Villa appears more solid, conceding an average of 1.04 goals, while Newcastle's average is 1.42
A key factor is Aston Villa's home strength, conceding only 0.77 goals per game at their stadium
In contrast, Newcastle is vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 1.89 goals per game
Head-to-Head
The historical record of the last five head-to-head encounters is perfectly balanced
Both teams have managed 2 wins each, with one match ending in a draw
The goal difference is also identical at 7:7
The last meeting on January 25, 2026, was won by Aston Villa with a score of 2-0
Key Players
For Aston Villa, Morgan Rogers has already contributed 8 goals and 5 assists this season
Emiliano BuendĂa is also a key offensive player with 5 season goals
For Newcastle United, Bruno GuimarĂŁes is the standout performer with 9 goals and 4 assists
Harvey Barnes has scored 5 goals in the current campaign
Goalkeepers
In goal for Aston Villa is Marco Bizot
The team has kept 8 clean sheets this season
For Newcastle United, Aaron Ramsdale will be the goalkeeper
The team has achieved 7 clean sheets in the current season
Influences
The home advantage for Aston Villa is statistically significant
Their strong home defense, conceding only 0.77 goals per game, meets Newcastle's weak away record of 1.89 goals conceded per game
At Villa Park, the average number of goals in recent matches has been 2.4, which could suggest a low-scoring encounter