FA Cup
Liverpool - Brighton & Hove Albion
02/14/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
2.9
0.8
2:0
12%1:1
11%2:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
7%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
64%
Draw
23%
Away Win
13%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
87%
Away or Draw
36%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Brighton's squad crisis: Only 32% of their usual goal-scoring threat is available as key players like Danny Welbeck and Yasin Ayari are not in the squad, massively weakening their attack
- Drastic gap in form and offense: Liverpool shows a positive trend (2.8 goals/game recently), while Brighton's goal production has collapsed (0.6 goals/game recently) and they are winless in 5 games
- Fortress Anfield: Liverpool's strong home record (1.62 goals scored, 1.08 conceded) meets Brighton's blatant defensive weakness away from home (1.82 goals conceded per game)
Risk Factors
- Potential fatigue: Both teams have had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to exhaustion and unexpected performances
- Cup match dynamics: FA Cup games are often unpredictable, and the underdog status could unlock extra motivation for Brighton
- Limited data availability: Expected goals (xG) data is missing for the recent matches of both teams, slightly limiting in-depth statistical analysis
Overview
Liverpool host Brighton & Hove Albion at Anfield for an FA Cup match
The game takes place on February 14, 2026, at 9:00 PM
Based on home strength and current form, Liverpool enters the clash as the clear favorite
The mathematical analysis underscores this with a 64% win probability for the home team
Form
Liverpool's form from the last five matches is LWWLW (3 wins, 2 losses)
They recently secured a 1-0 victory against Sunderland
Brighton & Hove Albion's form is DLDLL (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)
Brighton are winless in their last five games and have lost their last two matches
The form curve clearly favors Liverpool
Statistics
Liverpool scores an average of 1.58 goals per game this season and concedes 1.35
At home at Anfield, Liverpool's attack is stronger with an average of 1.62 goals, and the defense is more stable with only 1.08 goals conceded
Brighton scores an average of 1.31 goals and concedes just as many
Away from home, Brighton's defense is particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.82 goals per game
In the last five matches at Anfield, there has been an average of 4.2 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Liverpool won 4 times, while Brighton & Hove Albion won once
There have been no draws in this period
The goal difference is 11:7 in favor of Liverpool
The last meeting on December 13, 2025, was won by Liverpool with a score of 2:0
Key Players
Hugo Ekitiké is Liverpool's top scorer with 10 season goals and has scored 3 goals in his last 5 appearances
Dominik Szoboszlai is in strong form with 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games
Mohamed Salah is a key playmaker with 6 assists this season
Pascal Groß scored one goal for Brighton in his last 5 matches
Lewis Dunk is a key player in defense and has played the full duration of the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Giorgi Mamardashvili starts in goal for Liverpool
The team has kept 8 clean sheets this season
Bart Verbruggen is in goal for Brighton
His team has achieved 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
Liverpool enjoys a clear home advantage, reflected in a strong home record for goals for and against
Brighton, on the other hand, concedes significantly more goals away (1.82 per game) than at home (0.93)
Anfield is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 4.2 goals in the last 5 matches and an 80% rate of both teams scoring