Bundesliga
Werder Bremen - TSG Hoffenheim
01/27/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.7
1.7
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
22%
Draw
25%
Away Win
53%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
36%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
47%
Away or Draw
78%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Drastic form discrepancy: Hoffenheim is unbeaten in 5 games (4 wins) and faces a Bremen team that is winless in 5 matches
- Offensive superiority: Hoffenheim's attack (2.11 goals/game) is significantly stronger than Bremen's (1.17 goals/game) and meets one of the league's weakest defenses (1.94 goals conceded/game)
- Positive performance trend: Hoffenheim is currently exceeding its season average for goals (3.3 vs 2.2), while Bremen is well below theirs (0.8 vs 1.2), widening the performance gap
Risk Factors
- Potential fatigue: Both teams have had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to exhaustion and unexpected squad rotations
- Historical exception: Although Hoffenheim dominates the head-to-head record, Bremen scored four goals against them in one of the recent duels, highlighting their offensive potential
Overview
Werder Bremen, in 15th place with 18 points, hosts TSG Hoffenheim, who are in 3rd place with 36 points
The Bundesliga match will take place on January 27, 2026, at 8:30 PM at the Wohninvest Weserstadion
For Bremen, it's about crucial points in the relegation battle, while Hoffenheim aims to solidify its position in the top group
Form
The form curves of the two teams could hardly be more different
Werder Bremen: LDLDL - 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses from the last five matches
TSG Hoffenheim: WDWWW - 4 wins and 1 draw from the last five games, with a current 3-game winning streak
The visitors enter the match with a clear form advantage
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Statistically, TSG Hoffenheim is superior in all areas
Hoffenheim scores an average of 2.11 goals per game, while Bremen averages 1.17
Defensively, Hoffenheim concedes an average of 1.22 goals, whereas Bremen concedes 1.94
Hoffenheim is particularly strong away from home, scoring 2.12 goals per game, while Bremen concedes an average of 1.67 goals at home
Head-to-Head
The historical record of the last five encounters clearly favors TSG Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim has won 4 of the last 5 duels, while Werder Bremen has won only one
The total goal difference from these matches is 13:9 in favor of Hoffenheim
The last meeting ended in a 3-1 victory for TSG Hoffenheim
Key Players
Jens Stage is Werder Bremen's top scorer with 6 goals this season, while Romano Schmid has provided 5 assists
At TSG Hoffenheim, the goals are spread among several players, including Andrej Kramaric with 6 goals, Fisnik Asllani also with 6 goals, and Tim Lemperle with 6 goals
Wouter Burger stands out as a playmaker with 6 assists
Goalkeepers
In goal for Werder Bremen is Mio Backhaus, and for TSG Hoffenheim, Oliver Baumann
Both teams have kept 4 clean sheets so far this season
Influences
The match will be played at the Wohninvest Weserstadion, where the last 5 games have seen an average of 3.2 goals
Both teams scored in 60% of these matches
The record on natural grass heavily favors Hoffenheim, who have won 7 out of 10 games on this surface, while Bremen has only won 1 out of 10