Bundesliga
St. Pauli - RB Leipzig
01/27/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
3.3
2.2
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
21%
Draw
23%
Away Win
56%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
74%
Over 3.5
48%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
44%
Away or Draw
79%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Offensive Superiority: RB Leipzig's attack (2.0 goals/game) meets St. Pauli's weak defense (1.72 goals conceded/game)
- Quality Gap in the Table: Fifth-placed RB Leipzig faces relegation-threatened seventeenth-placed St. Pauli
- Weak Home Record: St. Pauli has won only one of their last 10 home games on natural grass, favoring Leipzig's away strength
Risk Factors
- Leipzig's Form: Despite being favorites, Leipzig has lost 3 of their last 5 matches, indicating some inconsistency
- Fatigue: Leipzig has had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could be a factor
- Venue Atmosphere: The Millerntor-Stadion is known for its low goal rate (2.2 goals/game) and could stifle Leipzig's offense
Overview
St. Pauli, in 17th place with 13 points, hosts RB Leipzig, 5th with 35 points, at the Millerntor-Stadion
This Bundesliga match takes place on January 27, 2026, at 8:30 PM
It's a classic duel between a relegation candidate and a team fighting for European spots
Form
St. Pauli form: WDLLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
In the last 5 games, there has been 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
RB Leipzig form: LLWLW
In the last 5 games, there have been 2 wins and 3 losses
Although RB Leipzig has a mixed record, they recently secured a victory, whereas St. Pauli is winless in their last four matches
Statistics
RB Leipzig's offense, averaging 2.0 goals per game, is significantly superior to St. Pauli's 0.89 goals
Defensively, St. Pauli is more vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.72 goals, while Leipzig concedes only 1.33
At home, St. Pauli scores an average of 0.89 goals per game and concedes 1.67
RB Leipzig averages 2.0 goals away and concedes 1.86
Head-to-Head
In the 2 previous direct encounters, RB Leipzig won 1 time, with 1 match ending in a draw
St. Pauli has not yet achieved a victory
The goal difference is 2:0 in favor of RB Leipzig
The last meeting was won by RB Leipzig with a score of 2:0
Key Players
For St. Pauli, Eric Smith with 2 season goals and 2 assists, and AndrĂȘas Hountondji with 4 goals are important offensive players
For RB Leipzig, Christoph Baumgartner with 6 goals and 7 assists, and RĂŽmulo with 6 goals and 4 assists stand out
Defender David Raum has also contributed with 3 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
St. Pauli's goalkeeper Nikola Vasilj has kept 3 clean sheets in 18 season matches
RB Leipzig's PĂ©ter GulĂĄcsi has managed 9 clean sheets in 18 appearances
The statistics clearly favor the Leipzig goalkeeper here
Influences
Statistics at the Millerntor-Stadion show an average of 2.2 goals per game, but only a 20% rate for 'Both teams to score'
St. Pauli's record on natural grass is weak, with only one win from 10 matches (1W-3D-6L)
RB Leipzig has a positive record on this surface with 5 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses