Bundesliga
Hamburger SV - Bayer 04 Leverkusen
03/04/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.7
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Hamburger SV
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
29%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Leverkusen's offensive advantage: With 1.91 goals per game, Leverkusen is clearly superior to HSV (1.13) in attack
- Home vs. Away Strength: Hamburg's strong home defense (0.88 goals conceded) meets Leverkusen's high-scoring but vulnerable away style (1.90 goals scored, 1.80 goals conceded)
- Model Prediction: The mathematical analysis slightly favors Leverkusen with a 39% win probability and predicts a close game
Risk Factors
- Leverkusen's squad issues: The guests are missing key players like Patrik Schick and Edmond Tapsoba, leaving only 63% of their usual offensive power available
- Potential fatigue for HSV: Hamburger SV has had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Extensive injury lists: Both teams are weakened by numerous injuries and suspensions, which affects squad depth
Overview
Hamburger SV (11th place, 26 points) hosts Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6th place, 40 points) at the Volksparkstadion
Bundesliga match on March 4, 2026, 8:30 PM
A duel between a mid-table team and a contender for the European spots
Form
Hamburger SV form: DWWDL
In the last 5 games, there were 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
Bayer 04 Leverkusen form: WWLDD
Leverkusen also got 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from their last 5 matches
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Leverkusen has a significantly stronger attack with an average of 1.91 goals per game compared to HSV's 1.13
HSV is defensively strong at home, conceding only 0.88 goals on average
Leverkusen is potent offensively away (1.90 goals per game) but also vulnerable (1.80 goals conceded per game)
In 13 of 23 matches for both teams, both teams scored
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer 04 Leverkusen has the clear upper hand
Leverkusen won 4 times, while Hamburger SV recorded only 1 victory
The goal difference is 9:3 in favor of Leverkusen
The last victory for Leverkusen was a 2:1 on February 17, 2018
Key Players
Ransford Königsdörffer has been in rising form with 3 goals in his last 3 games
Defender Luka Vuskovic has already scored 4 goals this season
Albert Sambi Lokonga has also contributed 4 season goals for HSV
Alejandro Grimaldo is a decisive factor for Leverkusen with 5 goals and 5 assists
Malik Tillman has been clinical recently, scoring 3 goals in his last 3 appearances
Jonas Hofmann is a mainstay in Leverkusen's midfield with 2 goals and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
Daniel Heuer Fernandes is in goal for Hamburger SV
Mark Flekken is the goalkeeper for Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Both teams have kept 6 clean sheets so far this season
Influences
HSV is defensively solid at the Volksparkstadion, having conceded only 0.88 goals per home game
The last 5 games at this stadium have seen an average of 2.8 goals
Both teams scored in 4 of HSV's last 5 home games
The mathematical analysis expects a close game with 1.25 expected goals for HSV and 1.42 for Leverkusen