Eredivisie
AZ - Excelsior
01/21/2026, 05:45 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
1.5
0.5
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
32%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
5%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
35%
No
65%
Key Factors
- Excelsior's glaring defensive weakness away from home, conceding 2.44 goals per game
- AZ's home strength in attack, scoring an average of 1.9 goals
- The last head-to-head match ended in a clear 4-0 win for AZ
Risk Factors
- Both teams have an identical and inconsistent form (2W, 1D, 2L)
- AZ has important absences in midfield due to injuries to S. Mijnans and J. Clasie
- The historical H2H record is surprisingly balanced with two wins each and one draw
Overview
AZ (8th place, 28 points) host Excelsior (14th place, 20 points) at the AFAS Stadion
Eredivisie match on January 21, 2026, 6:45 PM
AZ are aiming for a win to stay in the race for European spots, while Excelsior are collecting important points against relegation
Form
AZ: WDLWL - 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in the last five games
Excelsior: WLWLD - an identical record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses
Both teams show mixed and comparable form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
AZ are strong on offense at home, scoring an average of 1.9 goals per game
Excelsior are vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.44 goals
Excelsior have not kept a single clean sheet in 9 away games
AZ have been involved in matches with over 2.5 goals in 13 of 18 games this season
Head-to-Head
The record of the last 5 head-to-head matches is balanced with 2 wins each and 1 draw
AZ has a clear advantage in goal difference with 13:7 goals
The last encounter ended in a clear 4-0 victory for AZ
Key Players
Troy Parrott is AZ's top scorer with 9 season goals
Mees de Wit has contributed 2 goals and 2 assists as a defender
For Excelsior, Noah Naujoks is the most dangerous player with 6 season goals, followed by Irakli Yegoian with 3 goals and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro of AZ has kept 4 clean sheets this season
Stijn van Gassel of Excelsior has 3 clean sheets, but has not yet kept one away from home
Influences
An average of 2.6 goals are scored per game at the AFAS Stadion
AZ's home record on natural grass is mixed with 3 wins and 5 losses
Excelsior's away record on grass is significantly weaker with only 1 win and 5 losses